Tony LaRussa is oft labeled a genius for his managerial decisions.
He is also oft derided for such.
The observed line between genius and fool can be a thin one.
In yesterday's game between the Cardinals and Reds LaRussa faced a decision:
The game was tied 2-2 in the bottom of the 8th inning. Lance Berkman had just hit a 1 out single. LaRussa replaced Berkman with pinch-runner Corey Patterson.
The Cardinals did not score and lost the game 3 - 2 in 10 innings.
Some believe that LaRussa, having pinch ran for Berkman, should have attempted to steal 2nd base with Patterson.
With Berkman on 1st and 1 out in the bottom of the eighth of a tie game, the Cardinals had a 60.2% Win Expectancy.
If Patterson were to steal 2nd the Card's WE would increase to 64.8%
If Patterson were to be caught stealing 2nd the Card's WE would fall to 52.4%
Patterson has stolen 13 bases this season. He's been caught stealing 9 times. That's a 59% success rate.
.59 X .648 = .38 This represents the WE of Patterson successfully stealing
.41 X .524 = .21 This represents the WE of Patterson being caught stealing
.38+.21 = .59 which is slightly less than the .602 WE the Cards had if the runner stayed put. The stolen base attempt in that situation decreases the Cardinals chance of winning the game.
NOTE: This does not include the relative offensive and defensive skills of the players; only the base-out states.
Not stealing the base is probably the right move.
Was pinch running for Berkman the right move?
With a league average runner on 1st, the Cardinals had a 60.2% chance of winning the game.
Berkman is less than a league average runner. According to FanGraphs, Berkman has cost his teams 11 runs more than an average player with his base running since BSR was first calculated in 2002.
Patterson is a better than average base runner. Why else pinch run? According to FanGraphs, Patterson has been worth 15 runs more than an average base runner since 2002.
Prorated to 600 place appearances, Berkman's base running is 1 run below average while Patterson's is 2 runs above average.
According to Baseball-Reference, Berkman advances an extra base (see B-R for definition) 35% of the time and scores from 1st on a double 40% of the time.
According to Baseball-Reference, Patterson advances an extra base 54% of the time, and scores from 1st on a double 50% of the time.
Using Patterson as a pinch runner definitely increases the Cardinals chance of scoring the go-ahead run in the 8th inning.
I would say, at 11:30 at night after waking up at 5AM and working a 16 hour shift, that the decision to pinch-run Patterson for Berkman, increased the Cardinals chance of scoring in the 8th inning from 3 to 5 percent.
I am not a huge fan of Tony LaRussa: baseball manager, but it is hard to say that his managing in this situation was particularly grievous
He is also oft derided for such.
The observed line between genius and fool can be a thin one.
In yesterday's game between the Cardinals and Reds LaRussa faced a decision:
The game was tied 2-2 in the bottom of the 8th inning. Lance Berkman had just hit a 1 out single. LaRussa replaced Berkman with pinch-runner Corey Patterson.
The Cardinals did not score and lost the game 3 - 2 in 10 innings.
Some believe that LaRussa, having pinch ran for Berkman, should have attempted to steal 2nd base with Patterson.
With Berkman on 1st and 1 out in the bottom of the eighth of a tie game, the Cardinals had a 60.2% Win Expectancy.
If Patterson were to steal 2nd the Card's WE would increase to 64.8%
If Patterson were to be caught stealing 2nd the Card's WE would fall to 52.4%
Patterson has stolen 13 bases this season. He's been caught stealing 9 times. That's a 59% success rate.
.59 X .648 = .38 This represents the WE of Patterson successfully stealing
.41 X .524 = .21 This represents the WE of Patterson being caught stealing
.38+.21 = .59 which is slightly less than the .602 WE the Cards had if the runner stayed put. The stolen base attempt in that situation decreases the Cardinals chance of winning the game.
NOTE: This does not include the relative offensive and defensive skills of the players; only the base-out states.
Not stealing the base is probably the right move.
Was pinch running for Berkman the right move?
With a league average runner on 1st, the Cardinals had a 60.2% chance of winning the game.
Berkman is less than a league average runner. According to FanGraphs, Berkman has cost his teams 11 runs more than an average player with his base running since BSR was first calculated in 2002.
Patterson is a better than average base runner. Why else pinch run? According to FanGraphs, Patterson has been worth 15 runs more than an average base runner since 2002.
Prorated to 600 place appearances, Berkman's base running is 1 run below average while Patterson's is 2 runs above average.
According to Baseball-Reference, Berkman advances an extra base (see B-R for definition) 35% of the time and scores from 1st on a double 40% of the time.
According to Baseball-Reference, Patterson advances an extra base 54% of the time, and scores from 1st on a double 50% of the time.
Using Patterson as a pinch runner definitely increases the Cardinals chance of scoring the go-ahead run in the 8th inning.
I would say, at 11:30 at night after waking up at 5AM and working a 16 hour shift, that the decision to pinch-run Patterson for Berkman, increased the Cardinals chance of scoring in the 8th inning from 3 to 5 percent.
I am not a huge fan of Tony LaRussa: baseball manager, but it is hard to say that his managing in this situation was particularly grievous
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