Wednesday, February 16, 2011

2011 Dodgers Roster

2010 Roster
2009 Roster

Dodgers on MLB.COM
Cot's Contracts
2011 ZiPS Projections

Rod Barajas
1B James Loney
2B Aaron Miles
3B Casey Blake
SS Jamey Carroll
OF Chris Gwynn
CF Matt Kemp
RF Andre Ethier

Dioner Navarro
IF Eugenio Velez
OF Juan Rivera
OF Trent Oeltjen

SP Clayton Kershaw
SP Chad Billingsley
SP Hiroki Kuroda
SP Ted Lilly
SP Nathan Eovaldi
RP Hong Chi Kuo
RP Matt Guerrier
RP Mike MacDougal
RP Blake Hawksworth
RP Josh Lindblom
RP Scott Elbert
RP Javy Guerra 

15-Day Disabled List
SP Rubby de la Rosa - Elbow Inflammation (8/1)
SS Dee Gordon - Shoulder Contusion (8/10)
2B Juan Uribe - Hip (7/30 retroactive to 7/24)
RP Kenley Jansen - Irregular Heartbeat (7/29)
SP Jon Garland-Right shoulder inflammation (6/4 retroactive to 6/2)
RP Jon Broxton-Bone Bruise on Elbow (5/6/11)
SP Vicente Padilla-Forearm stiffness (5/19/11)

60-Day Disabled List
C/IF/OF Hector Gimenez-Knee surgery (5/13/11)

Designated for Assignment
LF Marcus Thames - 7/14

AJ Ellis
1B John Lindsey
2B Ivan DeJesus Jr

IF Juan Castro
IF/OF Russ Mitchell
OF Jerry Sands

OF Jamie Hoffman
OF Jay Gibbons

SP John Ely
SP Dana Eveland
SP Tim Redding

RP Jon Link
RP Ramon Troncoso
RP Carlos Monasterios
RP Travis Schlichting

Non-Roster Invites to Spring Training
RP Ron Mahay
OF Gabe Kapler

Restricted List
RP Ronaldo Belisario

Albuquerque Isotopes
Chattanooga Lookouts
Great Lakes Loons
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes
Ogden Raptors

2011 Top 200 Prospects
Baseball America


OF Trayvon Robinson - Traded to Boston for C Tim Federowicz, P Stephen Fife, P Juan Rodriguez
OF Xavier Paul-DFA'd.  Claimed by Pittsburgh Pirates
C Russ Martin-Non-tendered.  Signed by NY Yankees
SS Chin Lung Hu-Traded to New York (NL) for P Michael Antonini
IF Ryan Theriot-Traded to St. Louis for P Blake Hawksworth

SP James McDonald-Traded to Pittsburgh for RP Octavio Dotel

OF Andrew Lambo-"
IF Blake DeWitt-Traded to Chicago (NL) with Brett Wallach and Kyle Smit for SP Ted Lilly and IF Ryan Theriot
OF Juan Pierre-Traded to Chicago (AL) for RP Jon Link, John Ely
SP Eric Stults-Sold to Japan
OF Jason Repko-Released. Signed with Minnesota

Tony Abreu-Traded to Arizona for SP Jon Garland
IF Justin Fuller-Traded to Chicago (AL) for DH Jim Thome
Luis GarciaVictor Garate to Washington for 2B Ronnie Belliard
Joshua Bell-Traded to Baltimore for P George Sherill
Steve Johnson-Traded to Baltimore for P George Sherill
Claudio Vargas-Traded to Milwaukee for Vinny Rottino
Andruw Jones-Released. Signed with Rangers
Takashi Saito-Non Tendered Signed with Red Sox
Brad Penny-Free Agent Signed with Red Sox
Derek Lowe-Free Agent Signed with Braves
Scott Proctor-Non Tendered Signed with Marlins
Nomar Garciaparra-Free Agent Signed with A's
Delwyn Young-Traded to the Pirates for 2 PTBNL

Andy LaRoche-Traded to Pittsburgh in Manny Ramirez Deal
Bryan Morris-"
Carlos Santana-Traded to Cleveland in Casey Blake Deal
Jon Meloan- Traded to Tampa
Eric Hull-Traded to Red Sox for SS Christian Lara

Joel Guzman-Traded to Rays for IF Julio Lugo
Sergio Pedroza-"
Edwin Jackson-Traded to Rays for SP Mark Hendrickson and C Toby Hall
Dioner Navarro-"
Blake Johnson-Traded to Royals for Elmer Dessens
Julio Pimentel-"

Pedro Martinez-Traded to Expos for 2B Delino Deshields



How Dodgers Became Dodgers

True Blue LA
Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness
Memories of Kevin Malone
Between the Ravine

Kirk Gibson World Series Home Run
Steve Finley Grand Slam
Four Consecutive Home Runs
Four Consecutive Home Runs

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Trade? Texiera for Pujols

There's been a lot of talk on the interwebs recently about the Cardinals and Albert Pujols.  This is because Pujols is the best player in the game right now and this is his last season under contract with the Cardinals.

Even more recently there has been talk that the New York Yankees might be interested in trading for Pujols.  Would that be a good trade for them?  Would that be a good trade for the Cardinals?  Let's take a look.

Ken Rosenthal got this started with this article suggesting that the Cardinals and Yankees could swap first basemen.  The thought being that if the Cardinals are going to lose Pujols they could at least get Yankees' first baseman Mark Texiera back to help offset the loss.

When analyzing any trade there are a number of things that we have to consider.

First, How good are the players in relation to each other

This FanGraphs graph shows the value of all first basemen from 2003 to 2010 (the length of Mark Texiera's career)

You might want to embiggen it to get a better look.  What you'll see is that Pujols has accumulated 67 WAR in the 8 year period (8+ WAR per season), that's by far the most of any first baseman.  Texiera has 36 WAR (4 WAR per season), which is the 4th most.  Clearly, Pujols is the better player.

But we don't want to consider what the players have done in the past, we want to know what they will do in the future.

If we project Texiera as a 5 WAR player this season and apply a .5 WAR per season aging curve then we get that Texiera should produce 22.5 WAR over the rest of his contract.

If we project Pujols as a 7 WAR player this season, and next, and apply the same .5 WAR per season aging curve then we get Pujols as being worth 54.5 WAR over this season and the next ten.  Why ten?

Pujols, as mentioned, is a free agent following this season.   The prevailing wisdom says that Pujols will sign a contract in the neighborhood of 10 years and $250 to $300 million and the second thing that we need to consider are the players' salaries.

The idea that Pujols will get that contract is based on these assumptions:  
Pujols will sign a 10 year deal just as Alex Rodriguez did.  
Pujols will be a 7 WAR player in 2012 and decline at a rate of .5 WAR per season.
Salary inflation will be 5% per season.  

Crunching those numbers gives us $286 million over 10 years.

The Yankees signed Texiera to a $180 million deal two seasons ago.  Texiera has 6 seasons and $135 million left on that deal.

The third thing that we need to look at is surplus value.  It is generally accepted that 1 WAR is worth about $5 million this season.  If we apply 5% inflation to salaries each season and multiply by expected WAR then we get a players expected value.

Doing this for Texiera we get an expected value of $125 million.  Since Texiera is going to be paid $135 million over the next 6 seasons then we have calculated that Texiera is being paid $10 million more than what he is expected to produce.

Doing this for Pujols we get an expected value of $335 million.  Since we are projecting Pujols to earn $291 million ($27.5 million from 2012 to 2021 plus $16 million this season) we have calculated that Pujols will be paid $44 million less than what he is expected to produce.

This means a Pujols for Texiera trade would be a net gain of $54 million for the Yankees.

So, does that mean the trade would be a net loss of $54 million for the Cardinals?  No.

The only reason that the Cardinals would trade Pujols would be if they could not sign him.  If they can't sign him then they are not losing out on Pujols' surplus value from 2012-2021.

From the Cardinals point of view they would be gaining Texiera, which is a net loss of $10 million.  They are also losing out on this year of Pujols, in which he is expected to have a surplus value of about $19 million.  All-in-all they'd be losing out on $29 million in the trade.  Not much incentive to have a handshake.

Of course, if the Cardinals were to sign Pujols, they'd be on the receiving end of Pujols' $45 million in surplus value while the Yankees would be stuck with Texiera and his $10 million loss.

I'd say, no deal.

The Cardinals would almost surely get the short end of the stick.  Better to get value out of Pujols this year by playing him, getting two draft picks (if compensation doesn't go away) after he becomes a free agent, and using that money to fill up some other holes next season.

Link to the google.doc spreadsheet I used for the calculations.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

The Moral Politics Test

A fun and interesting internet quiz.

The Moral Politics Test

Go ahead and take it before looking at my answers.

Your scored -5 on Moral Order and 1.5 on Moral Rules.

The following categories best match your score (multiple responses are possible):
  1. System: Socialism
  2. Ideology: Social DemocratismActivism
  3. Party: Green Party
  4. Presidents: Jimmy Carter
  5. 04' Election: David Cobb
  6. 08' Election: Dennis Kucinich

Of the 660,465 respondents (11,708 on Facebook):
  1. 6% are close to you.
  2. 63% are more conservative.
  3. 3% are more liberal.
  4. 7% are more socialist.
  5. 20% are moreauthoritarian.

1. About God (whatever God means for you).
I chose:
Religion should not exist. (You think religion is more of a negative force than a positive one).
The religions that I have been most exposed to have encouraged individuals not to think for themselves and to turn to dogma for answers.  This has long term negative effects on both the individual and society.

2. About ethnic groups.
I chose:
Some ethnic groups are btter than others.  (Some ethnic groups have superior qualities (biological, social, artistic…) compared to others.
This is where the ‘hint’ makes a big difference.  I don’t think that any ethnic group is ‘better’ than any other.  I don’t even really believe in ethnic groups.  What I do believe is that through evolution peoples in certain religions have evolved similar traits.  These traits are different between groups.  Northern Europeans have lighter skin than Africans.  This is better for Northern Europeans in Northern Europe.  Darker skin is better for Africans in Africa.  An advantage in one area can often be a disadvantage in another.

3. About Cultures
I chose:
All cultures are equal. (The fact that cultures have been more productive than others does not make them more worthy).
Similar to the ethnic groups different cultures evolve different practices to thrive in their environments.  Something in European culture allowed Europeans and European culture to dominate a large part of the globe and eliminate (or nearly eliminate) other cultures.   Many of these cultures had beliefs and practices that would be quite beneficial if practiced more widely (see some Native American ideas towards conservation and the environment).

4. About countries
I chose:
We are all citizens of the world (Countries, boundaries, and patriotism create conflict and opportunities for oppression).
Countries, boundaries, and patriotism create conflict and opportunities for oppression.  The side of a non-existent line one is born on can have a profound impact on the entirety of one’s life.  National boundaries are created through politics and power.  Two of the worst ways to make decisions.  

5.  About lifestyles
I chose:
No one should have a say about our lifestyles (Life style decisions are a private matter.  “Non-traditional” lifestyles have a positive impact on society).
Allowing people to live their life their own way is the only way to allow people to fulfill their full potential.  Every person that reaches their potential benefits the rest of us.

6. About men and women
I chose: Men and women are different but equal (Men and women are equal but natural differences suggest that it’s ok if they play different roles in certain contexts).
Similar to lifestyles, allowing individuals to live individually allows each individual their best opportunity.   It’s not so much that I believe that men and women are different, I believe everyone is different.  This was the best answer.

7. About nature
I chose:
Nature does not belong to us, we belong to nature (Exploitation of natural resources should be tightly controlled or prevented whenever possible).
Some people believe that humans are at the top of the food (and other resource) chain and have dominion over all the world’s plants and animals.  I disagree.  We are but one species on the earth.  No better, no worse.  Most would agree that a defenseless human child should not be exploited, how are the other living things on this planet any different?
Yes, I realize that to survive we must consume resources.  There is a difference between taking what is needed to survive and exploiting.

8. About success
I chose:
Success is measured by the number of people for whom you make a difference. (Success should be measured and rewarded by our ability to help other people in need). 
This was a difficult question to answer.  I also could have picked (Success is finding your inner self (Success should be about finding who you are and doing what you want to do, no matter the financial implications).  I chose because I really feel that most people actually are happier when they are helping others. 
While success is defined by each individual, there’s no denying that society has some impact on determining what qualities are considered worthwhile.  I’d like a society where helping others was more respected. 

9. About business
I chose: We should reward businesses that put social responsibility ahead of profitability. (While business is business, the system should favor those businesses that help society and communities).
Similar to about success.  If helping others were more valued, then businesses that did so would be more successful.

10. About professional employment and advancement
I chose:
Quality of life is more important than work (People should be able to balance private life and work to their liking without being penalized).
I don’t think that everyone should be compensated equally whether they work 100 hours a week or 15 hours a week.  I don’t think that a neurobiologist who spent 10 years in college should be compensated the same as your newspaper delivery boy.  I do feel that people should be able to decide for themselves how they want to proportion their time. 

11. About education
I chose:
Everyone should have the opportunity to receive a great education (Access to education should be the same for all, but we should pay extra attention to students that encounter difficulties).
Another tough answer.  A ‘great’ education is relative to each individual.  Our entire education system in the US should be revamped and individualized.  It is asinine to think that cookie-cutter grade K-12 education maximizes each students’ opportunities.  Some learn faster, they are held back.  Some learn slower, they are left behind.  Have education match the individual.

12. About health care:
I chose:
You should get the health care you are ready to pay for (Basic health care should he provided to all, but extra health care should be available to you if you want it).
A timely question.  No one wants to see people dying in the street (well, it seems like some people don’t want to SEE it, whether it happens or not, while others don’t want it to happen at all).   Opportunities to acquire wealth are not equal.  No one should pay with their life for lack of an opportunity.

13. About financial security
I chose:
None of the above
Way too complex for a multiple choice answer.  Way too complex to write here.  Not everyone is capable of taking care of themselves.  I work with people with disabilities.  One individual I work with is paraplegic.  It’s not possible that he can take care of himself.  I don’t think he should just die.  I don’t think that society should take care of people who choose not to take care of themselves. 

14. About charity.
I chose:
None of the above
I didn’t think any of the answers were very good.  As I said before there is benefit to society as a whole by allowing each individual to reach their maximum potential.  Similar to health care and education.  Society should pay for a certain basic level, anyone who wants to pay more should be able to.

15. About domestic security (protection from crime).
I chose:
We should have the right to defend ourselves (We should not completely rely on the system (police…) to provide us with protection.)
Of course individuals have some responsibility to themselves.   Lock your doors, be aware of your surroundings, etc…I do believe that their should be limits (You don’t need a nuclear missile in you back yard to defend yourself from North Korea).

16. About respect of the law
I chose:
We should eliminate the causes of crime (Rather than simply enforcing the law, Society should focus on removing the causes of crime).
An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.  Anyone who’s at all familiar with the statistics can see that we have a problem.  1% of the population is in jail.  I agree that in some cases harsher punishments are needed.  I also think that there are plenty of people in jail who have absolutely no reason to be.  Some people will break the law regardless of what opportunities they have (see plenty of white collar criminals), others would not.  

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Islam and witch hunts

There is a lot of talk in the world about the Islamic idea of "Taqiyya".  According to wikipedia, Taqiyya is:
a practice in Shia Islam whereby adherents may conceal their faith when they feel that they are under threat, persecution, or compulsion.
Some people have used this to conclude that any seemingly innocent Muslim is actually an undercover agent of sorts, intent on destroying America.

I'm getting a feeling of Déjà vu.

Ahh...the European witch hunts.  It is estimated that as many as 100,000 'witches' were executed.  The witch hunts were prevalent in what is now Germany.  

Friedrich Spee was a priest who likely heard the confessions of accused witches.  He was outspoken against the use of torture to elicit confessions.   In 1631 he wrote the Cautio Criminalis (Precautions for Prosecuters)

Friedrich Spee in the Cautio Criminalis
1. Incredibly among us Germans, and especially (I am ashamed to say) among Catholics, are popular superstitions , envy, calumnies, backbiting, insinuations, and the like, which, being neither punished nor refuted, stir up suspicion of witchcraft. No long God or nature, but witches are responsible for everything.
11. Therefore the old woman is put in prison. A new proof is found through a second dilemma: she is afraid or not afraid. If she is (hearing of the horrible tortures used against witches), this is sure proof, for her conscious accuses her. If she does not show fear (trusting in her innocence), this too is a proof; for witches characteristically pretend innocence and wear a bold front.

An accused witch was guilty if she were to confess, and guilty if she refused to confess. Much like modern Muslims.

Some have created a situation where any Muslim, regardless of their actions, is presumed guilty. If they are outwardly violent, then they are guilty. If they are outwardly peaceful, then they are hiding their true intentions.

To think that it is Muslims who are so often decried as living in the 14th century.