Tuesday, July 23, 2013

New Dodger: Alexander Guerrero

The Dodgers recently (yesterday or today) threw their financial might around again.  This time they signed Cuban 2B/SS Alexander Guerrero.


I've never heard of the guy before so I don't know anything about him.  The internet has helped out and this is what I've been able to find:

His last 3 seasons in Cuba he hit something like .330/.410/.610 in 886 PA's with 60 home runs.

How's that compare to two recent Cuban players?
From 2010 to 2011 Yasiel Puig and Yoenis Cespedes hit
Puig: .330/.430/.581 with 17 HR
Cespedes: .333/.424/.667 with 33 HR

So, he's comparable to those guys.

How have Puig and Cespedes hit in the majors?
If you've stumbled upon this blog you've probably heard of Puig.  He went Babe Ruth for his first 150 PA's in the majors.  He's since cooled off.  Cespedes was excellent last season but has struggled in 2013.

All told Cespedes and Puig have hit .283/.343/.489 in 1057 major league PA's

If he can play 2B or SS or 3B and hit like that then he's an All-Star.  The only infielder in the majors this year with a .340/.450 ish line is Manny Machado.

I don't think we should expect Guerrero to be Manny Machado.

Another thing to note is that both Puig and Cespedes walked more than they struck out in Cuba.  They've struck out about 3 times as much as they've walked in the majors.  That indicates a serious difference in the talent levels of the pitchers that they are facing.

Guerrero signed for $32 million over 5 seasons.  Puig signed for $42 million for 7 seasons and Cespedes for $36 million over 4 seasons.

Guerrero's contract was the smallest of the three.  $10 million less than Puig received for the same length and about half as much per year than Cespedes'

So, what can we take away from this?  I have no idea really.  Guerrero put up similar offensive numbers to Cespedes and Puig in Cuba.  We're still trying to figure out exactly how those guys will hit in the majors though.

The scouts and the guys involved in the million dollar contracts don't seem to think that Guerrero is as good as Puig or Cespedes.

At about $5 million a year he doesn't have to be an All-Star.  He doesn't have to be an All-Star to be an upgrade to the Dodger infield.

I can't wait to wait and see.

Other Links used

Sunday, July 14, 2013

Why do we love no-hitters?

This isn't my idea and it's been brought to recent light by Brian Kenny.

Why fascination w/ no-hitter?Because in formative years of baseball, walks were considered a pitcher's responsibility, not a batter's skill

Yes, I'm saying it: No-hitters, hitting streaks - antiquated notions.  From a time where we are baseball values were misguided.

No-hitters are...?cool?...I enjoy them.  But what do they mean?
Nothing really

Lincecum pitched a no hitter yesterday, you may have heard.
9 innings, 0 hits, 0 runs, 4 walks, 1 hit batter, wild pitch, 13 K's, 148 pitches.

Though it'll be the game that goes down in history, I'm not sure it was the best game pitched yesterday.

Zack Greinke also pitched a pretty good game yesterday.
9 innings, 2 hits, 0 runs, 1 walk, 9 K's, 110 pitches.

Greinke allowed 2 less runners to reach base.  He needed 38 less pitches to retire 27 hitters than Lincecum did.  The two hits off Greinke were a loopy line drive to left-center and a bunt

Greinke allowed 20 balls in play.  14 of them were ground balls, 3 were classified as line drives, 1 was an infield fly ball.
Lincecum allowed 14 balls in play.  6 were ground balls, 6 were outfield fly balls, 2 were classified as line drives.

Lincecum pitched a great game.  Greinke probably pitched a bit better.

Lincecum's game will go down in history because Hunter Pence made this catch.

Johnny Vander Meer allowed 12 base runners in his back-to-back no-hitters.
Francisco Liriano walked 6 in his no-hitter
Joe Cowley gave up 6 walks and an earned run in a no-hit game.
AJ Burnett walked 9, hit a batter, threw a wild pitch and allowed 3 steals in his no-hitter.
Edwin Jackson also allowed 9 base runners, but none by hit.

There have been plenty of better pitched games than those above, but they aren't considered historic.