Saturday, June 11, 2011

Yakety Sax: Jonathan Herrera (6/11/11)

The latest Yakety Sax inducing play wasn't committed by a team, but a single player.  The Rockies' Jonathan Herrera.

With the Dodgers leading the Rockies 8 - 6 in the top of the ninth inning and runners at the corners with 0 outs, LA had a Win Probability of 94.9%.

Dodgers' batter Tony Gwynn hit a sharp ground ball to the Rockies' 2nd baseman Jonathan Herrera, who had to make a quick decision on what to do.

It appears that he had 3 options:

The first option would have been to throw to the shortstop covering 2nd base and try for a double play.  If Herrera had chosen this option and if the Rockies had completed the double play allowing Rod Barajas to score from 3rd the score would have been 9 - 6 with 2 outs leaving LA with a Win Probability of 93.5%.  This play would have increased Colorado's Win Probability by 1.5%

The second option would have been to try to tag the runner going by and then turn the double play.  By holding the ball Herrara may have been able to stop Barajas, the runner at 3rd, from scoring.  If Herrera had chosen this option, and completed the play without the run scoring the Dodgers would have had 2 outs and a runner at third leaving LA with a Win Probability of 88.5%.  This play would have increased Colorado's Win Probability by 6.4%.

It appears as though Barajas may have started home on contact, negating option two.  However Herrera's 3rd option would have been to throw directly home and try to stop Barajas from scoring.  If Herrera had chosen this option and if Barajas had been tagged out at home, LA would have had 1 out with runners on 1st and 2nd and a Win Probability of 91%.  This play would have increased Colorado's Win Probability by 3.9%.  

To see what Herrera chose to do, play this video.

While listening to this video.  

Don't peek ahead.

It appears that Herrera didn't have any idea what to do.  He looks like he began to throw home, then tried to tag the runner going by.  However he missed the runner going to second, and his throw home was late.  Everybody safe.  This play gave the Dodgers a 96.7% Win Probability, decreasing Colorado's Win Probability by 3.2%.

Speaking of Win Probability, what a fun game this was...

*Win Probability stats from The Hardball Times
*Game graph from FanGraphs

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Day Planners: June 8th

June 8 2000 (Thur):
Marketing class in the morning
Afterwards I was to go to the gym with the notation "D&V"; Dustin and Val?
Had a check to cash, plants to water, laundry to do, and pens and a notebook to buy

I was working as a vendor for the Albuquerque Dukes baseball team at this time, a home stand started the next day.

June 8 2001(Fri):
Had to get up and mow the yard, preferably before it got too hot
Had a library book to pick up; don't remember which one it was
Something to do with EMT notes

By far the most exciting thing for the day: Pack Camping Stuff!!!!

June 8 2002(Sat):
Was working at The Beach Waterpark from 8 AM to 7 PM with Kim and Steve

June 8 2004(Tue):
Working at Su Vida.  I think I was working in the office at this time
Aferwork (or maybe at lunch) was supposed to go to the gym and work "upper"
Buy some groceries on the way home
And look for some new tires online once I got home

June 8 2008(Sun):
Living in Washington DC.  Had the day off.
The Nationals played the Giants
My brother had been in town and had left on Friday.  We had gone to see the Nats v St Louis and take a stadium tour where I threw a perfect strike in the bullpen. A couple of days later we went to see the National Air Guitar Championship.

June 8 2009(Mon):
Living in Silver Spring Maryland and working at the National Cathedral.  Had to catch the bus at 8:56 to get to work.
Afterwork I wanted to go to Giant and pick up: Bananas, spinach, lunchmeat and bread.

June 8 2010(Tue):
Living in New York City, working for The Center for Family Supports.
Had to make a bunch of phone calls in the morning regarding one of my clients.
After work I had to do a secret shop for an ice cream shop
Then a work meeting at 3:00
Stephen Strasburg made his major league debut against the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Was an amazing game.  Watch highlights here.  I had considered going down to DC to watch the game, but since I had the meeting I couldn't.  Damn it.

Yakety Sax: KC Royals (6/7/11)

Just as with the first 2 versions of the Yakety Sax plays,
Toronto Blue Jays: May 25th
Chicago Cubs: May 17

Sit back and enjoy this video of the KC Royals throwing the ball all over the field

As you listen to this song

The play occurred in the top of the first inning.  Toronto leadoff man Yunel Escobar singled to open the game.  The Royals' Win Probability at that point was 46.5%.  With the #2 hitter, Corey Patterson, at the plate Escobar took off for 2nd.  Catcher Matt Treanor's throw went in to CF where it was retrieved by Melky Cabrera who through to 3rd.  Unfortunately, for the Royals, Mike Aviles couldn't field the Melk Man's throw and Escobar jogged home safely with the run.  When KC was finally able to get the ball back to pitcher Vin Mazzaro their Win Probability stood at 40.4%, a loss of 6% on the play.

Thursday, June 2, 2011