Ichiro and Gwynn: A comparison

Some people mentioned Tony Gwynn in comparison to Ichiro.  I decided to take a look.

Walk rates are similar

Strike out rates.  Wow!  It's amazing just how good Gwynn was at getting the bat on the ball.

BABIP rates to be fluctuate, but both Gwynn and Ichiro have .350ish BABIPS.  Well above league average








According to Baseball-Reference Tony Gwynn:
hit ground balls 49.6% of the time with a.260 BABIP 
hit line drives 23.5% of the time with a .735 BABIP
hit fly balls 26.5% of the time with a .183 BABIP


The same numbers for Ichiro
ground balls: 55.4% .305 BABIP
line drives: 21.3% .708 BABIP
fly balls: 21.7% .162 BABIP


Career batting average/BABIP
Ichiro: .331/.357
Gwynn: .338/.341


Gwynn and Ichiro went about posting their high batting averages and high number of hits in similar, but not exactly the same way.


Both hitters limited strikeouts.  You can't have a high batting average with a lot of strike outs.  If you never strike out your potential batting average is 1.000.  If you always strike out your potential batting average is .000.  Easy enough to understand.


I've tried a few different ways to explain this, but I think an example will work best.  Let's consider 600 at bats for each player. 


First, deduct the amount of outs made on strike outs.
Ichiro K%=10.1 10.1% * 600 = 60.6 outs made by striking out.  539.4 at bats remain
Gwynn K%=4.7 4.7 * 600 = 28.2 outs made by striking out.  571.8 at bats remain


Hits on ground balls
Ichiro GB%=55.4  55.4 * 539.4 = 298.6 * .305 BABIP = 91.1 hits
Gwynn GB%=49.6  49.6 * 571.8 = 283.8 * .260 BABIP = 73.8 hits


Hits on fly balls
Ichiro FB%=21.7  21.7 * 539.4 = 117 * .162 BABIP = 18.9 hits
Gwynn FB%=26.4  26.4 * 571.8 = 151.2 * .183 BABIP = 27.7 hits


Hits on line drives
Ichiro LD%=21.3.  21.3 * 539.4=114.9 * .708 BABIP = 81.3 hits
Gwynn LD%=23.5  23.5 * 571.8=134.5 * .735 BABIP = 98.9 hits


Hits on bunts
Ichiro Bunt%=1.6%  1.6 * 539.4=8.9 * .660 BABIP = 5.9 hits
Gwynn Bunt%=.4%  .4*571.8=2.4 * .560 BABIP = 1.3 hits


Total hits
Ichiro = 91.1+18.9+81.3+5.9 = 197.3 hits
Gwynn = 73.8+27.7+98.9+1.3 = 201.6 hits


Batting Average
Ichiro = 197.3/600 = .328
Gwynn = 201.6/600 = .336


Gwynn got hits by never striking out 
Ichiro gets hits by rarely striking out, hitting a lot of ground balls, and being very fast
Both players avoided hitting fly balls which almost always find gloves waiting for them at the end of their flight.