Monday, August 15, 2011

Yakety Sax: Dodger Baserunning (8/15/2011)

As usual,

Play the music

and play the plethora of videos featuring Dodger base running mishaps.

Kemp thrown out at home (aka...a triple play).  The Dodgers had runners at 1st and 2nd.  James Loney grounds up the middle into a double play.  Using The Win Probability Enquirer at The Hardball Times we find that the Dodgers Win Probability with Kemp being thrown at at home was .447.  If Kemp had held at 3rd, with two outs the Dodgers WP would have been .485.  The play cost the Dodgers 4.2 points of WP.

Dioner Navarro thrown out at home.  Navarro was on 2nd after a ground rule double.  Justin Sellers singled to CF.  Navarro being thrown out left the Dodgers with a WPA of .518.  If Navarro had been held at 3rd the Dodgers would have had 1st and 3rd no outs, a WPA of .633.  The play cost the Dodgers 11.5 points of WP.

Andre Either doubled off of first base.  Ethier was on first after a walk.  Kemp lines to CF and Jerry Hariston made a diving catch.  Ethier was thrown out scrambling back to 1st for the 3rd out of the inning.  The Dodgers' WP at that point was .438.  If Ethier had stayed up, LA would have had a runner on 1st with two outs, a WP of .467.  The play cost the Dodgers 2.9 points of WP.

And, to top it off, the final play of the game, Matt Kemp doubled off of first base.  With the game being over, and the Brewers up 3 - 0, the Dodgers had 0 WP.  If Kemp had not been doubled off the Dodgers would have had a WP of .013.  The play cost the Dodgers 1.3 points of WP.

4 plays decreased LA's chance of winning by 19.9.

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