Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Who I'm rooting for in 2012

With only about a month left in the 2012 baseball season the pennant and wild card and 2nd wild card races are getting interesting.

I don't like baseball, according to some, but I'm pulling for the Dodgers to win the NL West.  At 4.5 games behind the Gnats they currently have just a 13% chance of winning their division.

They're a lot close to both of the 2 wild card slots though.  If the season ended today the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals would be the wild cards.  The Dodgers trail Atlanta by 3.5 games and the Cardinals by 1.5 games (though the Cardinals are currently losing to the Mets).  The Dodgers' wild card probability is about 14%.

LA has passed up the Pirates in the standings - they lead Pittsburgh by 1 game.

This is where it gets interesting.  I'd like to see the Pirates in the playoffs, but not at the expense of LA missing out.  So, I can't root for you Pittsburgh.  I have no desire to see St. Louis or Atlanta make the post season, so I'm perfectly content to point my mental powers towards their opponents in an effort to control the outcome of those games.

In the NL East the Nationals are a great story.  Having lived in DC for 3 years I have a bit of a soft spot for the team and will be pulling for them to win their division and beat every team in the playoffs they encounter that doesn't hail from Los Angeles.   I need the Braves to lose, of course, but I'll be rooting for the Phillies to finish the season strong.  They have an excellent core of players and I think they'll be back with a vengeance next year and look forward to some Nats/Phillies rowdy-dows as the Phillies try to avoid passing the torch completely to the young Nats.

The NL Central looks like the Reds' to lose.  They are the best team and I don't expect anyone to challenge them for the division.  Pittsburgh and St. Louis (as mentioned above) stand to stand in between LA and the post season so they must lost.  The Brew Crew are an interesting collection of players and I'd like to see them finish up over .500.  Chicago's Cubs will have their day under the guidance of Theo, but not yet.  They can lose.  Houston has a chance to be historically awful.  I'd like to see that.

Everyone in the NL West not named the Dodgers can go to hell.

In the AL East, things have gotten interesting as of late.  The Yankees, Orioles and Rays are all within sniffing distance of each other.  I always root against the Yankees, and it's been working recently.   I hope that it will continue to.  I hold no real love for the Orioles.  As long as their winning threatens New York's chances then I'll cheer for Baltimore.  I'm certainly a fan of what the Rays have been doing since 2008 (actually before that when it became clear they knew how to run an organization) and I'd like to see them take the division.  I want to root for Boston, but I don't think there's any point in that.  They aren't going to the playoffs and if they start winning they might think James Loney had something to do with it and re-sign him.  I wish that fate only on the Yanks.  Toronto?  With no Jose Bautista, there isn't much to make me pay attention.

The AL Central should be an exciting race.  I though the Tigers would walk away with the division, but Chicago has gotten resurgent seasons from a few players and Kenny Williams has done whatever it is that he does again to get the White Sox in contention.  But, I don't like the White Sox.  Detroit all of the way.  As with the Rays, the Royals have some interesting things going on.  I'd like to see them finish strong and put themselves in good shape for next season.

The AL West is fun as well.  Texas and Anaheim were supposed to battle down to the wire.  The Angels stumbled and it looks like the Rangers will claim the division.  Of course Oakland has come back from the dead and I can't even resist their charm.  Go A's.

Who I Want To Make The Playoffs
NL West - Dodgers
NL Central - Reds
NL East - Nationals
Wild Card 1 - Pittsburgh
Wild Card 2 - one

AL East - Rays
AL Central - Tigers
AL West - Rangers
Wild Card 1 - A's
Wild Card 2 - Orioles

Who I'll be rooting for
Whoever is playing the Giants
Whoever is playing the Yankees

Who I'll be rooting against
St. Louis
White Sox

Go teams!!!!

*All playoff probability data from the Outstanding

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