Tuesday, July 23, 2013

New Dodger: Alexander Guerrero

The Dodgers recently (yesterday or today) threw their financial might around again.  This time they signed Cuban 2B/SS Alexander Guerrero.


I've never heard of the guy before so I don't know anything about him.  The internet has helped out and this is what I've been able to find:

His last 3 seasons in Cuba he hit something like .330/.410/.610 in 886 PA's with 60 home runs.

How's that compare to two recent Cuban players?
From 2010 to 2011 Yasiel Puig and Yoenis Cespedes hit
Puig: .330/.430/.581 with 17 HR
Cespedes: .333/.424/.667 with 33 HR

So, he's comparable to those guys.

How have Puig and Cespedes hit in the majors?
If you've stumbled upon this blog you've probably heard of Puig.  He went Babe Ruth for his first 150 PA's in the majors.  He's since cooled off.  Cespedes was excellent last season but has struggled in 2013.

All told Cespedes and Puig have hit .283/.343/.489 in 1057 major league PA's

If he can play 2B or SS or 3B and hit like that then he's an All-Star.  The only infielder in the majors this year with a .340/.450 ish line is Manny Machado.

I don't think we should expect Guerrero to be Manny Machado.

Another thing to note is that both Puig and Cespedes walked more than they struck out in Cuba.  They've struck out about 3 times as much as they've walked in the majors.  That indicates a serious difference in the talent levels of the pitchers that they are facing.

Guerrero signed for $32 million over 5 seasons.  Puig signed for $42 million for 7 seasons and Cespedes for $36 million over 4 seasons.

Guerrero's contract was the smallest of the three.  $10 million less than Puig received for the same length and about half as much per year than Cespedes'

So, what can we take away from this?  I have no idea really.  Guerrero put up similar offensive numbers to Cespedes and Puig in Cuba.  We're still trying to figure out exactly how those guys will hit in the majors though.

The scouts and the guys involved in the million dollar contracts don't seem to think that Guerrero is as good as Puig or Cespedes.

At about $5 million a year he doesn't have to be an All-Star.  He doesn't have to be an All-Star to be an upgrade to the Dodger infield.

I can't wait to wait and see.

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