Monday, December 23, 2013

Contract Analysis: Chris Perez (&Jamey Wright)

The Dodgers have agreed to a deal with Chris Perez.

Perez is the former Cleveland Indians closer who was also busted for ordering shipments of marijuana to come to his house under his dog's name.

When Perez was first released by the Indians I hoped the Dodgers would give him a look.  Obviously, they did.

Unfortunately, I took another look as well.

Over the last 3 seasons Perez:
K'd 20.7% of hitters, walked 8.6%, gave up line drives 21% of the time, 3.73 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 4.18 xFIP, 3.67 SIERA, 0 fWAR, 1.4 RA-9 WAR

Let's compare those numbers to the numbers of recently released Ronald Belisario:
K'd 20.1% of hitters, walked 9.7%, gave up line drives 21% of the time, 3.24 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 3.46 xFIP, 3.16 SIERA, .7 fWAR, .9 RA-9 WAR

*stats from FanGraphs

Belisario is, more than arguably, better than Perez, but the Dodgers decided to let Belisario walk away. I don't understand.

But, that's the past.  How about the future?
STEAMER and Oliver projections project:
Perez for 21.4% K's, 8.3%BB's, 4.12 FIP and -.1 WAR per 55 innings
Belisario for 19.4% K's, 10.1 BB's, 3.73 FIP and .2 WAR per 55 innings

Belisario still comes out better.

Terms of Perez' deal haven't been released, but hopefully it's nothing more than a couple of million with incentives.




Jamey Wright also signed.  I like this move better.
How do his numbers look?
Last 3 seasons:
K'd 19% of hitters, BB'd 9.4%, gave up line drives 19% of the time, 3.32 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 3.69 xFIP, 3.41 SIERA, .6 fWAR, 1.3 RA-9 WAR.

and STEAMER and Oliver projections?
18.8% K's, 9.0% BB's, 3.64 FIP, 0.9 WAR per 55 innings.

*stats from FanGraphs

He looks like the best of the bunch.


That leaves the Dodger bullpen looking something like:
Closer - Kenley Jansen 68.3 innings, 13.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 2.18 ERA, 2.35 FIP, 1.2 WAR
HL R - Brian Wilson 32.3 innings, 8.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 3.27 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 0.3 WAR
HL L - Paco Rodriguez 46.7 innings, 10.9 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 3.02 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 0.4 WAR
ML L - JP Howell 50.7 innings, 7.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 3.42 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 0.1 WAR
ML R - Chris Perez 55.7 innings, 8.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.88 ERA, 4.12 FIP, -0.1 WAR
LL R - Jamey Wright 42 innings, 7.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 3.61 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 0.1 WAR
LL R - Brandon League 61.7 innings, 6.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.76 ERA, 3.72 FIP, -0.1 WAR

With the following waiting in AAA
Chris Withrow - 64.3 innings, 9.5 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 3.58 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 0.1 WAR
Jose Dominguez - 49.3 innings, 8.9 K/9, 5.3 BB/9, 4.15 ERA, 4.15 FIP -0.1 WAR
Onelki Garcia 47.7 innings, 8.0 K/9, 5.6 BB/9, 4.37 ERA, 4.53 FIP, -0.4 WAR
Scott Elbert - 24.3 innings, 8.5 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 3.52 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 0.0 WAR
Javy Guerra - 55.3 innings, 7.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 3.98 ERA, 3.95 FIP, -0.2 WAR

*Combined projections from STEAMER, Oliver, and ZiPS

These moves push Chris Withrow to AAA.
Elbert and Guerra are out of options and will need to be traded or released.
Rule V pick Seth Rosin doesn't look to have a spot and will have to be offered back to the Mets (along with $25000) or a trade will have to be worked out.



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