Andrew McCutchen - the face of the Pittsburgh Pirates. He put up nearly 30 WAR in the 4 seasons between 2012-2015. That's very good.
He's also seems to be one of the more thoughtful professional athletes.
https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/left-out
Now, he's a Philadelphia Philly for 3 years (and $50 million). He's, at 32, certainly no the player that he once was with Pittsburgh. Though, he's rebounded from a precipitous decline from 2015 to 2016 to remain a useful player.
The Phillies, are, as they say, upcoming. They're loaded with young talent and on the precipice of contention.
Does it make sense for them to sign McCutchen?
First, the projections. Steamer projects McCutchen for 2.6 WAR in 2019. Standard aging curves, then, have him producing like this over the life of the contract.
YEAR WAR VALUE
2019 2.6 $26
2020 2.1 $22
2021 1.6 $18
TOT 6.3 $66
All the above assumptions have McCutchen producing $16 million more than the Phillies are paying him, so, on that level, the deal makes sense.
But, does it make sense to commit to a declining player when the teams' fortunes should be going up?
The Phillies' depth chart for 2019 had Nick Williams, Roman Quinn and Odubel Herrera as the primary outfielders. They were projected for 3.2 WAR combined. That's not great. Fangraphs, had a 40 future value for Quinn, and a 45 for Williams. Meaning that neither is expected to be an average (2 WAR ) player in the future. So, there was certainly need for an OFer for 2019. Quinn looks to be the lesser of the OFers, but is the most qualified to play CF. Meaning McCutchen is more likely to replace Williams - somewhat mitigating the improvement. Herrera has been the Phillies' CFer, but the metrics hated his defense last year (-10 UZR/150 compared to +9 and +4 in 2016 and 2017).
The Phillies don't have much coming up from the farm either. Adam Haseley, Mickey Moniak and Dylan Cozens are their top minor league outfielders but none are even 50 future value players, so none should be expected to be impact players. Though Haseley and Cozens had strong seasons in the minors last year.
So, I still don't like the idea of the Phillies giving what looks like a below average McCutchen starting OFer money when they should be in the prime of their contention window, the deal makes sense if they think they're in the running this year and next.
He's also seems to be one of the more thoughtful professional athletes.
https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/left-out
Now, he's a Philadelphia Philly for 3 years (and $50 million). He's, at 32, certainly no the player that he once was with Pittsburgh. Though, he's rebounded from a precipitous decline from 2015 to 2016 to remain a useful player.
The Phillies, are, as they say, upcoming. They're loaded with young talent and on the precipice of contention.
Does it make sense for them to sign McCutchen?
First, the projections. Steamer projects McCutchen for 2.6 WAR in 2019. Standard aging curves, then, have him producing like this over the life of the contract.
YEAR WAR VALUE
2019 2.6 $26
2020 2.1 $22
2021 1.6 $18
TOT 6.3 $66
All the above assumptions have McCutchen producing $16 million more than the Phillies are paying him, so, on that level, the deal makes sense.
But, does it make sense to commit to a declining player when the teams' fortunes should be going up?
The Phillies' depth chart for 2019 had Nick Williams, Roman Quinn and Odubel Herrera as the primary outfielders. They were projected for 3.2 WAR combined. That's not great. Fangraphs, had a 40 future value for Quinn, and a 45 for Williams. Meaning that neither is expected to be an average (2 WAR ) player in the future. So, there was certainly need for an OFer for 2019. Quinn looks to be the lesser of the OFers, but is the most qualified to play CF. Meaning McCutchen is more likely to replace Williams - somewhat mitigating the improvement. Herrera has been the Phillies' CFer, but the metrics hated his defense last year (-10 UZR/150 compared to +9 and +4 in 2016 and 2017).
The Phillies don't have much coming up from the farm either. Adam Haseley, Mickey Moniak and Dylan Cozens are their top minor league outfielders but none are even 50 future value players, so none should be expected to be impact players. Though Haseley and Cozens had strong seasons in the minors last year.
So, I still don't like the idea of the Phillies giving what looks like a below average McCutchen starting OFer money when they should be in the prime of their contention window, the deal makes sense if they think they're in the running this year and next.
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