Thursday, February 7, 2019

Quick analysis of JT Realmuto to Philadelphia and a Dodgers alternative

Long rumored, recently consummated

https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/1093593468260311040

Realmuto projects for about 4 WAR for each of the next two seasons.
The value of that production is something like $80 million
He'll earn something like $16 million

That means he'll produce about $64 million more than what he'll be paid


According to this FanGraphs analysis, Sixto Sanchez with a 60 future value (FV) is worth $60 million.  Nearly all of Realmuto's surplus value

FanGraphs gave Will Stewart (40 FV).  This analysis gives him a future value of $2 million.  That's a total of $62 million the Marlins will be receiving. 

Alfaro is projected for 1 WAR this season, and will have 5 more seasons of team control and arbitration.  Giving him a pessimistic 1 WAR for those 5 seasons and costing the Marlins a total of, say, ($500K, $500K, $1 million, $3 million, $5 million) $10 million, Alfaro is worth about $30 million.

Thus, a grand total of about $92 million going back to the Marlins. 

Unnecessary disclaimer: neither I, not FanGraphs' projections know the future with much certainty, and anyone is free to value these players differently.

Looks, from here, like the Marlins received more than fair value for Realmuto.


What might a similar trade have looked like for the Dodgers?
The Phillies gave up a top pitching prospect in Sixto Sanchez.  Dustin May is the Dodgers' best pitching prospect.  He was a 50 FV last year, maybe he's a 55 now. What's that worth? A value of between $16 and $40 million - big gap.  Take the middle - $28 million.  About $30 million less than Sixto's.

The Phillies also gave up a major league ready catcher with some experience.  The Dodgers have prospects in Keibert Ruiz and Will Smith, they also have Austin Barnes.  Barnes had a fantastic 2017, a terrible 2018 and is projected somewhere in between for 2019. A pessimistic projection for him gives him 4 seasons at 1.5 WAR for 6 WAR.  That's worth about $54 million.  $20+ million more than Alfaro's value.

At this point the Dodgers are between $5 and $10 million less than the Marlins' offer..  Who do the Dodgers have in that range?  Maybe someone like Mitch White (45 FV)?

How would Dodger fans feel about giving up Austin Barnes, Dustin May and Mitch White to get Realmuto?  I think I'd pass.  If you would sub in catching prospect Will Smith (55 FV $42 million) instead of Barnes, I think I'd do it.  If it took Keibert Ruiz (55 FV $41 million), I'd probably pass. 






No comments:

Post a Comment