Ryan Braun: Contract Analysis

The Milwaukee Brewers agreed with Ryan Braun on a 5 year $105 million extension.

Braun is somewhat of an underrated, or possibly unknown since he plays in Milwaukee, player.  According to FanGraphs, Braun is:
9th in wRC+
11th in wOBA
4th in slugging
10th in ISO
10th in home runs (if you're into stats like that)
since coming up in 2007.

The offense is excellent, but defense...

Braun was a disaster at 3B in his rookie season.  Posting a UZR of -27 while making 26, wait.  Really?  26 errors.

Braun is no gold glover in LF but is much closer to being adequate with a career UZR of -7 there.

Braun is 26th in total WAR over the last 4 seasons and would be higher if not for the poor defensive showing his rookie season.

Braun's seasonal WAR
2007: 2.8
2008: 4.6
2009: 4.9
2010: 4.2

The stats I posted above show that Braun is a slugger but he is a pretty complete hitter otherwise.  He walks close to 8 percent of the time, about average, while striking out about 20% of the time-and has been improving that area of his game steadily.

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Braun looks like a pretty safe offensive force going forward.

Braun signed an 8 year $45 million extension in May of 2008, his 2nd year.  That contract bought out all of Braun's arbitration years and 2 free agent years.

The new contract technically overwrites the old contract, though the dollar amounts for the years 2011-2015 are the same (some monies might be deferred).

The original contract was an excellent one.  Assuming 5% salary inflation, $5 million per WAR and Braun as a 4.5 WAR player through his age 30 season, the original contract would have provided the Brewers with $53 million in savings (discluding the $10 million signing bonus).

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Using the same assumptions, the new contract has the Brewers overpaying by about $9 million (call it even if you add in the signing bonus).  Usually teams take discounts on long-term contracts to insure against risk of injury, decline, world-wide financial crisis, etc.

So I'm not really sure why the Brewers made this deal now.  They already had Braun locked in for the next 4 seasons and they are paying him what can reasonably be expected to be his market value for the 5 seasons after that.  They could have waited until the previous deal expired and likely signed Braun to a similar contract with less risk if Braun fails to perform or is injured.

Braun IS just 27 this year.  Perhaps the Brewers feel that he will over perform the 4.5 WAR estimate.  If Braun is a 5 WAR player the contract would save the Brewers $10 million over the second half of the contract.

Perhaps the Brewers feel that 5% inflation is too low.  At 7% they would save $3 million and at 10% they would save $23 million.

The Brewers must see something that I don't for this extension to make a lot of sense.

*Stats from FanGraphs
*Contract data from Cot's



Other Contract Reviews:
Adrian Gonzalez
Clay Buchholz

Debut Review: Jerry Sands

The LA Dodgers called up OF/1B prospect Jerry Sands today.  Count me in with those who believe that it is too early and a panic move by the Dodgers who are seeing that the Marcony Thynn jr thing isn't really working out in LF.

The Dodgers have scored 52 runs in 16 games which (starts to look up the ranking, gets lazy) isn't very good at all.

Dodger left fielders are 16 for 64 on the season with 2 walks, 10 strike outs, and 2 RBI.  They have a triple slash line (batting average, on base percentage, slugging) of .250/.273/.344.

Meanwhile, Jerry Sands was lighting up AAA with a .400/.422/.875 line.   That's 45 trips to the plate with 5 home runs, 17 RBI, 3 walks and 3 strikeouts.

Sands was a 757th (25th round) pick by the Dodgers in 2008 out of Catawba College.  His first year in rookie ball was unimpressive.  He hit .205/.346/.438 while striking out 43 times in 185 plate appearances (29%).   Sands got 185 more times at bat in rookie ball.  This time he hit .350/.427/.687 with only 28 strikeouts (17%).  He was moved to A ball where he ended the season hitting .260/.361/.510 while striking out 30% of the time.  He started out 2009 in A ball again and, like his second go round in rookie ball, he showed vast improvement, hitting .333/.432/.646 while cutting his strikeouts to 25%.  He was called up to AA where he hit .270/.360/.529.  In 2010 combined sands hit .301/.395/.586 with 35 home runs to put himself on the radar for 2011.  In Sands' total minor league career (so far) he's hit .294/.390/.584 while striking out 21% of the time.

Sands has shown the ability to hit for power and draw walks in the minor leagues.  The strikeout rate is high, but not unacceptable for a power hitter.  One concern is that Sands has always been a bit old for his level.  Sands was 20/21 in rookie ball and 21/22 in A ball.  I was looking forward to this year as a 23 year old in AAA to see how he fared against more age appropriate competition.

Now, we'll see how he does against grizzled major league vets like Tim Hudson of the Braves.

In Sands' first major league at bat he had runner James Loney at first base.  Hudson started him with a 92MPH sinker which Sands fouled off.  Hudson followed that up with another 92MPH sinker, this one low and inside, which Sands again fouled off.  Sands down 0 - 2 in the count.  Hudson threw a 85MPH cutter way outside which Sands took for ball 1.  Hudson came back with another sinker, this one pretty much down the middle, which Sands took the opposite way for a double.   Last season all hitters combined to hit .170/.199/.251 after starting the count 0-2.

In his second at bat, Sands came up with runners on 1st and 3rd with 1 out.  Hudson came with a splitter low and away which got away from McCann and moved Loney to 2nd base.  Hudson came back with a sinker in nearly the same location as the one Sands hit in his first at bat.  Sands struck this one well and flied out to deep right allowing Juan Uribe to score from 3rd.

In his third trip, Sands came up with 1 out and nobody on.  Sands got ahead in the count 3-1 before fouling off a sinker low and in and a slider away.  He then struck out on a slider low and outside.

In his fourth and final time up, Sands faced Braves reliver Jairo Asencio who started him off with a changeup high and inside for ball 1.  The next pitch was a fastball down the middle that Sands fouled off.  Sands watched a curveball low and away for a ball before fouling off a changeup that caught a lot of plate.  Sands swung through a pretty nasty changeup at the knees for strike 3.

It's hard to make much out of 4 at bats, but Sands drove the ball against a pretty good pitcher in Tim Hudson though both balls were hit to RF.  In his second two at bats he fouled off a few hittable pitches before striking out.  He didn't chase many pitches out of the zone; only a good slider by Hudson.

Certainly not a bad debut for Mr. Sands, man.

Adrian Gonzalez: Contract Analysis

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The Boston Red Sox and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez finally came to a contract extension agreement.  The deal is reported to be worth 7 years and $154 million.  That's 154 followed by one million 0's.  No, actually it isn't.  But it is a lot of money.

I recently looked at the Sox' extension with Clay Buchholz and I'm going to take a similar look here.

Gonzalez has shown a pretty steady climb during his formative years with the Padres.

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Doesn't get much more consistent than that.  How this leveling off is going to go is anyone's guess but if we take a standard aging model and give Gonzo two more seasons of steady production before a half WAR decline once he reaches age 31 (in 2013) and we assume the same $5 million per WAR and 5% inflation as we did with Buchholz, we'll get the following chart.

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The Actual Salary for 2011 includes Gonzo's $5.5 million salary for the year plus the $6 million signing bonus.

Under these parameters Gonzo would provide the Red Sox with 33.5 WAR over the life of the contract. The market value of the WAR would be $194.3 million with the Red Sox paying only $159.5 million.  The $35 million Projected Savings represents the risk that the Red Sox take on.  If Gonzo's shoulder falls apart tomorrow they are still on the hook for almost $160 million.  From here, it looks like a pretty fair deal for both sides.

There is still the issue of the market.  What is the going rate for slugging first basemen?  With Buchholz we could look at his teammate Jon Lester's deal.  With Gonzalez we will look to the Red Sox' mortal enemy, the New York Yankees.

Prior to the 2009 season the Yankees signed their version of Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira, to an 8 year $180 million contract.  Teixeira was 29 in the season following his contract.  Teixeira and Gonzalez are pretty similar players as the following graph shows.

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The only real difference in their total production is that during Teixeira's age 23 season he played a full season and put up 2 WAR while at age 23 Gonzalez only played 46 games.  At age 24 Teixeira and Gonzo both played full seasons.  Teixeira put up 4.5 WAR and Gonzalez 3.9 WAR.  They've been pretty equal ever since.

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A couple of things to note.  First, the $/WAR rate in 2009 was lower-about $4.5 million.  Second, the actual $/WAR in 2010 dropped to $4 million instead of increasing 5%.  Teixeira was coming off a 7+WAR season in 2008 when he signed the deal.

Gonzalez' deal looks to be a bit better than Teixeira's.  The Yankees are over paying $5 million compared to the Red Sox saving $35 million.

One other thing to remember though, the Red Sox traded for Gonzalez (giving up prospects) while the Yankees signed Teix as a free agent (surrendering 2 draft picks).  The 'cost' of the prospects could be subtracted from the Red Sox' side of the ledger (but not added to Gonzalez' side, certainly).  And the Yankees are made out of money.

Given that, the two deals look pretty equal.

One deal that doesn't look equal is the Ryan Howard deal.

In February of 2009 the Phillies and Howard agreed to a 3-year $54 million deal that covered Howard's 2nd and 3rd arbitration years and first year of free agency.  Then, one year later, the Philles gave Howard another deal worth $125 million over 5 years.  Let's look at that deal.

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*Note: The Phillies have a $25 million option for 2017 with a $10 million buyout.  The graph assumes the Phillies decline the option.

It looks a lot different.  Using the same parameters as the Teixeira deal (the deals were signed the same year) we get the Phillies coming out almost $40 million in the red.  There are a few reasons for this.

First, Howard isn't as good as Teixeira and Gonzalez.

You can see that Howard's graph is nowhere near Teixeira's and is getting farther apart over time.  He's closer to Gonzalez', but only because of a monster year at age 26.  The gap widens every other year.

Also, Howard's deal covered 2 of his arbitration years.  Remember that in the second two years of arbitration players generally get 60 and 80 percent of their market value.

The Phillies will most likely regret this deal...well...now...but will really regret in when the the deal starts NEXT YEAR.

*Stats from FanGraphs
*Contract data from Cot's and BleacherReport 

Phillies' Rotation 11 Games In

There was a little bit of talk about the Phillies' rotation heading into this season.

After 10 games the results have been a bit disappointing.  The starters are:

5 - 3 5.04 ERA, 55.1 innings, 63 hits, 4 HR, 11 walks, 56 strikeouts.

That ERA is 24th in the league.  Not what Phillies phans were expecting.  It's only 10 games so there's no reason to throw in the towel yet.  Especially if we look a little bit closer at how the Phillies' starters are pitching.

ERA is a terrible way to judge a pitcher, let's look at some other stats.

Philles starters have struck out the most batters per nine innings in the majors; striking out batters 30% more often than the league average.
They have walked the least batter per nine innings in the majors; walking batters at only 55% of the league average.
They, obviously, have the best strikeout to walk ratio in the majors; 138% better than the league average.
Their FIP is the best in the league at 73% of the league average.

The Phillies' starters are dominating in most of the things that usually make pitchers successful.

The only thing that they are lagging in, and they are really lagging, is in BABIP.  The Phillies' starters have the 2nd worst BABIP in the league; 22% worse than the league average.

It is unlikely, to the point of near impossibility, that this will continue.

You can see that Lee, Hamels, and Blanton's BABIPs are impossibly higher than their career BABIPs while Halladay's is right in line and Oswalt's is much lower.

Based on the batted ball rates (GB, FB, LD, IFFB) and typical BABIPs on those batted balls (.240, .140, .740, .40) we'd expect the Phillies' starters to have a total BABIP of .311.  That'd rank them much closer to the middle of the pack and would take away a lot of those runs that have been given up.

R2C2 is going to be fine.

Plus, it's not like the bad BABIPs are killing the 7 - 3 Phillies in the standings.

Chase Utley's knee is still the biggest reason that Phillies fans have to worry.

H/T to Grandstander

Clay Buchholz: Contract Analysis

The Boston Red Sox signed the guy in the picture above to a $30 million extension today.  That guy is Clay Buchholz.

I wrote about Buchholz' superb 2010 and projection for 2011 here.

I wrote that Buchholz isn't really as good a pitcher as his 2010 made him look due to some BABIP and LOB% luck.

So, did Buchholz get lucky with this extension or did he earn it?

One thing to look at is his partner in crime, Jon Lester.  Lester signed a similar deal after his breakout 2008 season.

Let's compare:
Buchholz 2010: 17-7, 2.33 ERA, 28 starts, 173.2 innings
Lester 2008: 16-6 3.21 ERA, 33 starts, 210.1 innings

At first glance, those would appear to be similar seasons.  Excellent win-loss records.  Buchholz a lower ERA, but Lester with a lot more innings.

Let's look at those seasons less superficially though:
Buchholz 2010: 6.22 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, 50.8% Ground Balls, 3.61 FIP, 84 FIP-, 3.7 WAR
Lester 2008: 6.50 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 47.5% Ground Ball, 3.64 FIP, 81 FIP-, 5.1 WAR
*FIP-

So, they are coming off of two pretty similar seasons.  They are also at similar points in their careers.  In March 2009 (When Lester signed his extension), Lester had 350+ innings and 59 career starts (and one victory over leukemia).  Buchholz came into 2011 with 360+ innings and 62 career starts.

Lester's deal was structured like:
Y1 (2010) 3.75 million
Y2 5.75 million
Y3 7.625 million
Y4 11.625 million
Y5 13 million team option (250 K buyout)

Buchholz' deal will be something like:
Y1 (2012) 3.5 million
Y2 5.5 million
Y3 7.7 million
Y4 12 million
Y5 13 million team option
Y6 13.5 million team option

Again, quite similar.  The guaranteed money is basically identical (not factoring for inflation) while the Red Sox get an extra option year on Buchholz' deal.

The reaction to Lester's deal was very favorable at the time of the extension.  As it should have been as the extension has basically turned into gold.

Lester 2006-2008: 59 starts, 354 innings, 6.65 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, 4.13 FIP, 91 FIP-, 6.9 WAR
Lester 2009-2010: 64 starts, 411 innings, 9.85 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, 3.14 FIP, 71 FIP-, 11.9 WAR

According to FanGraphs' WAR to Dollar Conversion, Lester has been worth $50.9 million since signing the contract, while earning only $4.75 million.  Not a bad investment.  Lester could...bow out now...and the Red Sox would have had a net positive for the deal.  Everything that he added since the first couple of months of the 2010 season is gravy.

But this is about Clay Buchholz, who is not Jon Lester.

Buchholz entered the 2011 season with 2 years and 59 days of service time, according to Cot's (which means it is probably accurate).  If Buchholz manages a full season in 2011 then he would be eligible for arbitration following the 2011 season.  In their first year of arbitration players generally receive about 40% of their market value.  This is followed by 60% in the second year and 80% in the third year.

If we project Buchholz more pessimistically than what Lester achieved, and say that Buchholz remains about a 4 WAR pitcher until he turns 30 then decreases by half a win after that and we assume a $/WAR of $5 million this year with 5% inflation, then we get the following chart.

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Given those parameters, Buchholz would provide 22.5 WAR worth a total of $107 million, while being paid only $55.2 million-a bit more than half of that.  So, Buchholz really only has to generate around 11 WAR to earn the contract.

This is where the option years come in.  The Red Sox guaranteed only $30 million to Buchholz.  If, Buchholz is only putting up 2 WAR seasons between 2012 and 2015 then he will have provided the Red Sox with about $32 million in value, while being paid $30 million.  The Red Sox would then decline the options, and still would have broken even on the contract.  Barring injury, it is very difficult to imagine Buchholz not being at least a 2 WAR pitcher.

Of course, there is the possibility that Buchholz gets injured tomorrow and never pitches for the Red Sox again.  In that case the Red Sox lose out on $30 million.

So the Red Sox are gambling at most $30 million on the the more likely possibility to come out $50 million ahead.  Smart move.

Not bad for Buchholz to put $30 mils in the bank either.

Now, go outside and sling some baseballs through that old tire you have set up in the backyard. 

Fili's GOD for April 6th 2011: Tampa Rays vs LA Angels of Anaheim

Today's Game Of the Day is the Tampa Rays vs the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  

The Tampa Rays burst into prominence in 2008 when they exorcised the word 'Devil' from their name and won the AL East with 31 more wins than they had the previous season. 

This year Tampa is off to a poor (0 - 4) start and what better way to get off of the schneid than by returning to their devilish roots and starting Hellboy himself, Jeremy Hellickson.  And they are, you know, playing the Angles.

http://www.draysbay.com/

Hellickson is one of a seemingly infinite number of top prospects in the Rays' system.  In 580 career minor league innings, Hellboy has a 2.71 ERA, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9.  

Hellickson displayed the same dominance in 36 major league innings last year.  3.47 ERA, 1.98 BB/9 and 8.17 K/9.  

Hellickson doesn't have the amazing fastball featured by many top prospects.  His fastball clocked in at about 92 MPH last season.  His devastating pitch is his changeup.  Hellickson through the changeup about 29% of the time last season, one of the highest rates in the league.  In contrast he threw his fastball only 53% of the time, one of the lower rates in the league.  

In the small sample, Hellickson's change saved 2.96 runs per 100 pitches.  If he had that rate for a full season he would have had the 3rd most effective changeup in the majors last year.  Behind only Felix Hernandez and Shawn Marcum.

Hellickson also throws a curve (17%, -.94 runs saved per 100) and a pitch labeled as a cutter, though that may be just noise since it was only thrown 1% of the time.

*All pitch data from FanGraphs.

Hellickson shows good stuff with a 73% contact rate (88% league average) and 13% whiff rate (9% league average).  

Hellickson had some trouble with lefties last year (5.63 FIP vs L, 2.22 FIP vs R).  That's a very small sample though and it shouldn't be expected to continue so dramatically since changeups are usually effective against opposite handed hitters.  The Angels don't have much in the way of left-handed bats (sorry Bobby Abreu and switch-hitting Maicer Izturis). 

Whether or not Hellickson dominates tonight, expect him to have a good season and career.  

Hellickson isn't the only player going tonight.

The Angels' Dan Haren is an outstanding pitcher as well.  Haren had a down year last year; 3.91 ERA and 3.71 FIP compared to 3.23 and 3.12 over the last 2 years.  

Johnny Damon will be DHing (with good reason).

UPDATE:

Hellickson was pretty awesome.  He struck out 5 in the first 2 innings, and 10 of the 25 batters that he faced while walking only 2.  He did give up a jack to Alberto Callaspo.

Brooks Baseball says Hellickson:
threw 99 pitches
38 fastballs, 24 for strikes, 2 swinging strikes at an average of 89.5 MPH
30 changeups, 19 for strikes, 8 swinging strikes
26 curveballs, 20 for strikes, 9 swinging strikes
5 cutters, 1 for a strike

Excellent mixing of his pitches.  Excellent strike rates and excellent swinging strike rates.

Hellboy didn't disappoint even though Tampa drops to 0 - 5.
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There was another amazing game.

I only got to see Jeff Francis deal to a couple of hitters while taking a quick break from shingling my Grandfather's house.  I missed a doozy of an ending.

The biggest play, in terms of WPA, was Carlos Quinten's double with the Sox down 1 with 2 outs in the top of the ninth facing Royal's closer Joakim Soria with 2 strikes.

When the at bat started, the Royals had an 83% chance of winning.  After Quinten's hit, the [i]Sox[/i] had an 83% chance of winning.  Talk about turning the game in your favor.

The entire ninth inning was insane.  When the inning started the Royals were up 6 - 3.  They had a 96.5% chance of winning.
AJ Pierzynski grounded out.  98.5% chance of Royals winning
Morel grounded out.  99.6% chance of Royals winning
Pierre single. 98.8%
Beckham walk. 96.6%
Rios single scores Pierre (6-4). 92%
Konerko single scores Beckham (6-5). 83.4%
Quentin double scores Beckham and Lillibridge (6-7). 17.4%
Ramirez flies out. 20.8%

Gordon strikes out.  11.7%
Butler singles. 21.6%
Dyson steals 2nd. 28.7%
Ka'aihue double scores Dyson. (7-7) Royals now have a 70.2% chance of winning.
Francoeur walks. 71.1%
Escobar grounds into a fielder's choice. 64%
Pena grouns out. 50%

That is absolute madness.  The Royals went from 99.6% chance of winning to a 88.3% chance of losing to a 71% chance of winning to even odds-in one inning.

Baseball is awesome.

Debut Review: Alexi Ogando and Michael Pineda

Two interesting pitchers made their debuts as major league starters today.

The Texas Rangers' Alexi Ogando

and the Seattle Mariners' Michael Pineda.

Ogando pitched in relief for the Rangers last year while Pineda is one of the Mariners top prospects.

I said this earlier today:

An interesting game today that, unfortunately, I'll be too busy to either watch or keep tabs on:
Seattle at Texas. While Texas is really good and Seattle, likely isn't, both teams will start pitchers making their first career starts. 
Alexi Ogando starts for Texas while Michael Pineda goes for the Mariners. 
One specific thing to watch will be how both pitchers fair against left-handed hitters. As is the case with most young pitchers, both have explosive fastballs and questionable secondary offerings. Those 'secondary offerings' are change-ups in both cases. 
Ogando used his change up only 5% of the time last season as a reliever. It rated as a basically average pitch according to FanGraphs' pitch type values. Alexi Ogando » Statistics » Pitching | FanGraphs BaseballOgando dominated right-handed batters to the tune of 10.4K/9, 2.2BB/9 and a 2.07 FIPLeft-handed hitters were a different story: 4.15K/9, 6.23BB/9 and a 5.23 FIP.The raw numbers:vs L: 58 batters faced, 11 hits, 9 walks, 6 K'svs R: 113 batters faced, 20 hits, 7 walks, 33 K'sOgando will have to face a few lefties today including: Ichiro, Jack Cust, Milton Bradley, Ryan Langerhans or Michael Saunders, Justin Smoak, Chone Figgins, and Adam Kennedy.
Pineda will have to face a few lefties as well: Josh Hamilton, Mitch Moreland, Julio Borbon, and David Murphy.
How their off-speed pitches are working will go a long way to determining how successful they are against these lineups.

So, how'd they do?

Ogando pitched 6 innings giving up 2 hits, 2 walks and striking out 4.  He held Seattle scoreless.
Pineda pitched 6 innings giving up 5 hits, 1 walk and striking out 4.  He gave up 3 runs.

They both pitched pretty well.  My main concern was how they would fare against left-handed batters.

Ogando allowed 4 base runners, all of them left-handed.  However, most of Seattle's lineup was left-handed, so it's not surprising that he'd give up some hits to lefties.
Single to Bradley, BB to Cust, 2B to Kennedy, BB to Bradley

Pineda allowed 5 base runners, 3 of them left-handed.
Pineda: 3B to Moreland, 2B to Moreland, 1B to Kinsler-R, 2B to Hamilton, 2B to Young-R
Righties were were 2 - 17 with a walk and 3 strikeouts.
Lefties were 3 - 7 with 2 doubles and a triple.  Moreland isn't a great hitter but a lot of guys have given up doubles (or more) to Hamilton.

This isn't enough data to confirm that either pitcher will struggle with lefties, but let's take a look at how they approached them.

First Ogando,
According to Brooks Baseball, Ogando threw 78 pitches: 49 fastballs (63%), 28 sliders (36%), and a single change-up (1%).   According to FanGraphs, last year Ogando threw fastballs 64% of the time, sliders 31% of the time, and change-ups 5% of the time.  Interesting that he pitched almost exactly the same as a starter as he did out of the pen.  That's one way to eliminate concerns over his change-up; don't throw it.

It appears that the change-up that Ogando threw was the first pitch to Chone Figgins in Figgins' at bat in the 6th inning.  It was a ball clocked at 84 MPH.  He followed that up with a 93 MPH fastball for a strike, a 83 MPH slider for a ball, and another fastball that was grounded back to Ogando.

Ogando's fastball averaged 94 MPH with a high of 96 MPH.  Last season his fastball averaged 96.3 MPH.  A two MPH drop is reasonable when going from the bullpen to the rotation.  Ogando's slider averaged 79.5 tonight compared to 81.9 last season.

As for Pineda,
Brooks Baseball shows Pineda throwing 73 pitches in his 6 innings.  46 of them were fastballs and the other 27 were sliders.  Pineda completely avoided throwing any off speed pitches.

Pineda's fastball averaged 93.9 MPH while maxing out at 97.7.  His slider came in at 83.3 MPH on average.

It appears that both teams shared the concerns about their young pitchers' tertiary offerings, and didn't have them throw them.  Today, their stuff was good enough that they could get away with it.  At some point both guys will have to expand their repertoire to continue to have success as starters.