2012 Dodger Outlook Part 2

The other day I ran down what I'd do with the position players in 2012.  Now it's time to take a look at the pitching staff.


Up first,

Kershaw is the only Dodger starter who is not under contract for next season (technically, he's not under contract for this year either.  He and the Dodgers have submitted figures to arbitration.  The $8.125 million listed above is the midpoint of those two figures) .  He's also far and away the best Dodger starter.  It would behoove the team to sign him to a long-term deal.  5 years and $85 million?  Something in that range?

Billingsley and Kershaw were supposed to be Drysdale and Koufax.  Kershaw is coming a lot closer to holding up his end of the bargain that Billingsley is.  Chad has been a productive pitcher for LA, but he's been too inconsistent, and hasn't been able to take that next step.  Still, a pitcher like Chad on the free market would command a higher salary than what Chad is due.

Lilly had a pretty Ted Lilly year in 2011.  It looked a bit ugly through July, but he turned it on in the second half.  Hopefully, he can start off 2012 as hot as he ended 2011.  Lilly is signed for another season after this and he's got to be at the end of his useful life.  A hot start and maybe some team will get desperate and trade for him.

I put Capuano and Harang together because Nedo signed them both to two year deals this off season.  This seems...ill advised.


Capuano signed for 2 year and $10 million with an $8 million team option in 2014.
Capuano is coming off this season with the New York Mets:
31 starts, 186 innings, 4.55 ERA, 1.6 WAR


Jeff Francis just signed a minor league deal with the Cincinnati Reds.  Francis did this last year:
31 starts, 183 innings, 4.82 ERA, 2.6 WAR


3 different projections systems project Capuano for the following:
9-9 record, 167 innings, 4.37 ERA


Those 3 projection systems project Francis for the following:
8-9 record, 157 innings, 4.49 ERA

Nearly identical pitchers.  One, signed by Ned, signs for $10 million.  The other, not signed by Ned, signs a minor league deal.


Harang is similar.  Compare his projected numbers
8 - 9 134 innings, 4.31 ERA to these 4 pitchers


Aaron Cook: 4 - 5 88 innings 4.69 ERA.  Signed to a minor league deal
Paul Maholm: 8 - 9 159 innings, 4.23 ERA.  Signed for 1 year $4.5 million
Jason Marquis: 8 - 8 129 innings, 4.33 ERA.  Signed for 1 year $3 million
Joel Pineiro: 8 - 9 141 innings, 4.29 ERA.  Signed to a minor league deal


How are these guys significantly different than Harang?  


The worst part of of the signings of Capuano and Harang is that they are for two years.  The Dodgers have a number of young starters getting close to the big leagues.  With 5 starters locked into contracts, there's won't be much room for them.

Nathan Eovaldi looks just as good as Harang at a fraction of the cost.


I need some good news.

That looks pretty good.  Almost an entire fully functioning bullpen all being paid the minor league minimum for both this year and next.  Especially since it is lead by Kenley Jansen who is absolutely nasty.  There's not much to do here besides sit back and let these guys develop...and let Javy Guerra rack up saves.  Javy is a good pitchers.  Not a great a great pitcher.  Not a really good pitcher.  Just a good pitcher.  But...if he can spend a year or two as a closer, he'll have value beyond his talent. If Guerra has 15-20 saves at the break, and a team comes calling, let him go.  

Moving on the the less happiness inducing part of the bullpen.  These guys are making actual money while not actually being any better than the cheap guys.  Guerrier is useful, but infinitely replaceable.  No real reason to give him any money.  MacDougal really isn't useful.  Any number of AAA relievers could replace his innings.  Blake Hawksworth is on the edge of usefulness.  But, his sister is hot.  


Not much to do here.  Only one long contract on the books, a bunch of major league minimum guys after that.  Trade Guerra if the opportunity presents itself.  We're not likely to compete so there's no real reason to add anyone.  We could have taken a chance on Brad Lidge who signed with the Nationals for $1.  Half a season of that and a trade would have worked out.  Similarly, we could sign Hong-Chih Kuo.


So there you have it.  Not a lot of room for making moves with Colletti doubling down on every mediocre free agent available.  

2012 Dodger Outlook

Less than a month until pitchers and catchers report and Ned Colletti has assembled a Dodger team that is ready to compete for an NL West title...in 2005.

Unfortunately, it is 2012.

No, really.  Check it out.

Ned reached into his bag of tricks and pulled out a handful of veterany goodness that was an exciting team half of a decade ago.  This looks like a team that will be more likely to be competing for a winning record than an NL West pennant.

So, what do we have to look forward to.

Well, one big thing.  But, what about after April?

Unfortunately (I don't drink, but if you do you and are in need of a drinking game go ahead and drink whenever you read the word 'unfortunately'), Ned signed every gritty veteran player to a 2 year contract this off-season.  That means we'll have to suffer through this same mediocre Dodger team not only in 2012, but again in 2013.

There's not much flexibility, or opportunity, in the roster for the next 2 seasons, but let's take a look at what could happen.  AKA what I think should happen.

We'll go position by position.  Starting with:

Right Field

Andre ended last season prematurely with a knee injury and his power numbers took a pretty big hit from what we're used to seeing from him.  He still managed to be productive though.  Andre is in his last year of arbitration in 2012 and will be a free agent after the season.  He's a good player, but probably not the guy the Dodgers need to commit to at this point.  He's a poor defensive outfielder.  His -9.7 UZR/150 is 2nd to last amongst qualified right fielders since 2009.   He also has a well documented struggle against left-handed pitchers.  According to FanGraphs' splits, Andre has a .386 wOBA against righties and a .292 wOBA vs lefties.

The best case scenario here is that Ethier comes back and shows that his knee is healthy in spring training then gets off to a good start so he can be traded at the deadline.  I'm not going to speculate as to which teams might be interested in Andre, or what we can get for him.  Ideally, some young players that will be ready to contribute in 2014.  Moving Ethier will bring in some young talent and open up right field for...

Kemp is coming off a near MVP season.  I could spill gallons of virtual ink writing superlatives for Kemp, but that's not necessary, I'll just spill a few ounces.  Kemp was just a few hits short of winning the triple crown.  He was 2nd in the league to MVP Ryan Braun in both wOBA and wRC+.  He was 1 home run away from 40/40.  He lead the NL in both fWAR and bWAR by a hefty margin.  He was rewarded with an 8 year $160 million contract.

Unfortunately, Kemp is miscast as a center fielder.  Like Ethier, Kemp's UZR/150 is closer to -10 than to average.  Kemp checks in at -9.3 over the last 3 years.  That's 3rd worst in the majors.  As a right fielder, Kemp would have solid range and a strong arm, he'd probably be a plus defender for the next few seasons in right.

Center Field

Matt Kemp will start off 2012 in center.  After we trade Ethier for a boatload of riches we'll need someone else to play there.  That someone is, quite obviously

Tony is certainly not Kemp's equal with the bat.  Kemp hit more home runs in September last season (8) than Gwynn has in his entire career (7).  But, where Kemp is one of the worst defensive center fielders in baseball, Gwynn is one of the best.  The best, in fact, according to FanGraphs with a 20.8 UZR/150.  That's a 30 run difference in defense.  That's significant.

FanGraphs WAR says that Gwynn has been about a 2 WAR player over each of the last 3 seasons in limited playing time.  That's certainly a bargain about a million dollars a year.  On a team that's not likely to be contending, Gwynn makes a fine, cheap, center fielder.

Left Field

Is a bit of a mess.  Gwynn will likely start off the season splitting time with

Rivera started 2011 with the Toronto Blue Jays and played so poorly that he was released.  Unfortunately, Ned figured that meant he was totally worth paying a few million dollars for.  To Ned's credit, Rivera played better in Dodger blue.  Rivera had a 79 OPS+ with Toronto and a 105 OPS+ in LA.  Unfortunately, neither one of those numbers is good enough to be a staring left fielder.

Fortunately (ehh...don't drink), Rivera does have some use against left-handed pitchers.  He has a career wOBA of .353 (116 wRC+) vs left-handers compared to a .326 wOBA (98 wRC+) vs right-handers.   That's not an extreme split, but...I'm searching for some reason not to absolutely hate having him on the team.  I've already discussed Ethier's struggles vs lefties.  Gwynn also shares that affliction.  Having Rivera around to face lefties for those guys isn't a terrible idea.

After Gwynn moves to center field to replace Kemp who will be replacing the traded Ethier, Rivera wouldn't be a terrible choice to play LF full time.  He's not the only option, though. 

Any of these guys could get some playing time in the majors.  Trent Oeltjen is the old man of the group. He's 29 and has 99 major league games under his belt.  He's not that good though so if any of the younger prospects breaks out in 2012, we could see them big the club.

You'll notice one name is conspicuously absent, more on him in just a minute.

But first

First Base

James Anthony Loney is the incumbent.  The Dodgers have had high hopes for James Loney since drafting him 19th overall in 2002.  Loney made an impressive major league debut in 2006.  Since then, Loney has, unfortunately, been one of the worst every day first basemen in baseball; he's produced 8.6 fWAR, which is just a bit more than guys like Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Prince Fielder produce in 1 season.  James is also coming off one heckofa weird season.

Loney started off last season hitting to a .208 wOBA.  That's 74% worse than an average major league hitter.  He straightened it out in May and June, hitting a very James-Loney-like .342 wOBA.  Then, he cratered in July, somehow hitting worse than he did in April.  Then, he turned into Miguel Cabrera for the final two months of the season; putting up .451 and .424 wOBAs.

So, what the hell?  There are about 6 months in a major league season.  For 2 of them he hit like Clayton Kershaw.  For 2 of them he hit like James Loney.  And for 2 of them he hit like Miguel Cabrera.  What's he going to do this year?

Most likely, he's going to hit like James Loney, that's who he is after all.  That's just not good enough.  If that's the James Loney we get we should try and trade him for anything we can at the deadline and move on at the position.

What if he hits like Miguel Cabrera again?  Then we have some deciding to do.  We have to decide if it is for real.  If it is, we need to look into signing him to a long term contract.  If it isn't, we need to trade him to someone who thinks that it is real.  

If Loney gets traded, then first base belongs to

Sands jumped onto the Dodgers' radar after a huge 2010 in which he hit 35 home runs between A and AA.  He was called up to bigs early in the 2011 season, and struggled. He returned to Albuquerque where he put up decent numbers then ended the season in LA where he hit .415/.493 over his last 20 games.  Sands may, or may not, be a major league quality first baseman.  He's not a sure thing, but he's got good plate discipline and developing power.  If he doesn't hit enough for first base, he's an option in left field as well.

Second Base

Belongs to

Mark Ellis turned a season in which he was 32% worse than an average hitter into 2 years and $8 million.  Thanks, Nedo.  Ellis was terrible with Oakland (.246 wOBA about 50% of an average major league hitter's production) before bouncing back a bit with the Rockies (.313 wOBA).  If we get the Mark Ellis that the Rockies got, he's a useful player.  I'm not betting $8 million on it though.  Ellis is 35 this year and most of his value comes from defense.  Defense is the first to go with age.  This could get ugly real fast if Ellis' hitting is gone and his defense goes.  Good thing we're locked into him for 2 seasons.

Third Base

I kinda liked the move to acquire

before the 2011 season.  He was coming off two resurgent years with the Giants.  He played strong defense.  He had some pop.   Most knowledgeable Dodger bloggers panned the signing.  They were right, at least for 1 year.  Uribe was horrid last year.  So much so that he became a meme.  There is some hope for a bounce back.  Uribe wasn't healthy last season.  Being healthy and playing regularly has to lead to better production.  He still had a positive UZR rating.  Even though he didn't hit, it appears that he could field.  That give ME hope there is something left in the thank.  There better be.  He's going to be on the roster and in the starting lineup for two more years.

Short Stop

Here, watch some of these.

I'll wait.

I don't know how good Dee Gordon is going to be.  He doesn't walk.  He strikes out too much.  He has no power.  He weighs less than an ounce of helium.  But dude is fast.  And electric.  Seriously, just watch those videos.  Let him play.  We've got to see what we've got.

Other Infielders

Jerry Hairston jr isn't a bad player.  He plays the infield.  He plays the outfield.  He can hit the ball out of the stadium now and again.  He's better than Aaron Miles.  He's not as good as Jamey Carroll.

Adam Kennedy.  He played DH for the Mariners last season.  He must be able to hit right?  No?  Then why are we paying him twice what we'd pay Justin Sellers to do the same thing?  Why isn't the battle for 2nd back up infielder between Justin Sellers and Ivan DeJesus?  DeJesus projects to the same line as Kennedy (.321/.353 85 OPS+).  Whatever Ned.  At least Kennedy is only around for 1 season.

Catcher

AJ Ellis finally gets his shot at age 31.  Ellis has a career OBP of over .400 in the minors and over .440 in AAA.  He's got no power; 19 home runs in over 2000 trips to the plate.  But, he's been able to get on base.  At worst, he's a major league back-up catcher.  Maybe he's even a starter.  The offensive bar for catchers is very low.  Major league catchers hit just .313/.389 last season.  If Ellis reaches his ZiPS projection of an 87 OPS+ that'd put him in the same offensive bracket as Geovany Soto, Jarred Saltalamacchia, and AJ Pierzynski, and other catchers with impossible names to spell.  A couple years of league average catching at minor league prices is very valuable.

Tim Federowicz was acquired in a *%%#(&*(#$(**)#'n dead line deal involving the Boston Red Socks and Seattle Mariners.  The reports on him aren't glowing.  Good defensive catcher.  Might not hit enough to play full time in the bigs.  Well...Fex-X (as he's called.  What's up with catchers and names that are hard to spell?) spent most of last year in AA.  I'd let him continue to get experience, either there or AAA Albuquerque, while AJ Ellis takes his shot in the bigs.  Ideally, Ellis would impress enough to claim the starting spot allowing Fed-X to stay in the minors until late in the season when he could come up and play back-up for a month or two.

There you have it.  The complete plan for the Dodgers' non-pitchers for 2012.

Look for a similar post for the pitchers soon.

New MLB CBA: The Rich have an easier time getting richer

First, the boring, gory details.

SUMMARY OF MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL PLAYERS ASSOCIATION MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL LABOR AGREEMENT

Highlights from MLB Trade Rumors

The new agreement is terrible for low revenue teams.

There are numerous restrictions on spending for amateur players (the draft, international free agents).  Amateur players are one place where low revenue teams have a competitive advantage against large market teams.

Here's a list of how much teams spent on draft bonuses in 2011.  You'll see teams like the Pirates, Royals, Rays at the top of the list.

Here's a list of international signing bonuses.  Again, Pirates, A's, Twins, Astros at the top.

Obviously, high-revenue teams are going to have an advantage signing major league players.  These players are also less risky.  If you pay $10 million a year for Rafael Soriano you have a much better idea of what you're going to get out of him than if you give a $3 million bonus to a 16 year old kid from the Dominican.

High revenue teams don't need to take as many risks on amateur players because they can sign more stable major league players.

Low revenue teams aren't going to be signing the best players and have to take risks on players in the draft and international free agents.  Spending $2 million on a player that might bust or might turn into Miguel Cabrera is their most efficient way to acquire star players.

The new CBA limits their ability to do that.

2012 Free Agent Team

Building a team from scratch using all free agents.  Get Boras' number on your speed dial.

I set myself a $100 million payroll limit and tried to estimate what each free agent would sign for.

I used the following as references
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/contract-crowdsourcing-2011-12-results/
http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012-mlb-free-agents/
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/

This is the team that I came up with

First, this was hard.  $100 mils don't but what they used to.  It also shows the importance of having cost-controlled players on your roster.

Catcher
There were 2 starting catchers on the free agent market.  Hernandez and Barajas.  As a Dodger fan I've had enough of Barajas.  Max Ramirez is a minor league free agent.  He played for every team last season.  He was a highly touted prospect at one point.  Just 27 next year there's a miniscule chance he figures it out.

First Base
Prince Fielder.  My hypothetical team won't be around in 5 years when concerns about Prince's aging due to his physique will likely be manifesting.   My team was light on offense.  Prince changes that.

Second Base
The Baltimore Orioles are about to let the cat out of the bag on Matt Antonelli.  I think he can play.  He's raked all over the minor leagues.  I don't know what the O's are paying him, but I'll match it.

Third Base
Wilson Betemit.  A little scary over there.  Betemit can hit, but the defense is ugly.  I still think he's underrated and can provide value in excess of his contract.

Shortstop
I'm not gambling on Reyes or Rollins.  I'll take the steady production of Clint Barmes.

Backup Infielder
Esteban German.  Mostly because I can get him on a minor league deal, I think.  He's got a bit of history of being able to play.  He's right-handed, so he can hit for Betemit against lefties.

Left Field
Always been a fan of the underrated DeJesus.  I finally have my chance to sign him.  Hopefully, it's not too late as age is starting to show. He's still a plus defender in left and can survive in center.

Center Field
Covelli 'Coco' Crisp.  It's him, Sizemore, or Ankiel.  I think Coco has the best chance of spending some productive time on the field.

Right Field
Josh Willingham.  My other player who can hit.  My pitching staff won't like all the runners advancing to 3rd on singles to right, but whatcha gonna do?

Backup Outfielders
DeWayne Wise.  Remember this?  Wise can play some D.  For the minimum salary, I'll take it.

Utility Players
Jerry Hairston.  One of the few utility players that can actually play defense at multiple positions as opposed to just standing there with a glove on.  If Antonelli flops, Hairston can take over at 2nd as well.
Ryan Doumit.  One of those utility players that just stands there with a glove on.  I'm more interested in his batting gloves though.  A left-handed hitter off the bench is always useful.  As is someone who can squat behind the plate.  He'll get some time in the OF and if Prince skips the game for the buffet.

Starting Pitching
This is where it's really hard.  I thought about blowing my money on CJ Wilson instead of Prince, but thought that was actually even riskier.  Pretty sure Prince will put up at least a few big seasons.

The number 1 guy that I knew I wanted was Jeff Francis.  Three straight years of an ERA around 5 will scare off some teams so I can get him below his actual worth.

Now I have to go injury guys.  Bedard and Harden.  Not gonna build a strong pitching staff on this budget without taking some risks.  If these guys can stay healthy for 120 or 150 innings they can put up value well in excess of their salary.

I filled out the rest of my roster then came back to this spot.  What pitcher could I get for around $10 million.  I offer a 1 year $7 million contract with an option for another year to a bunch of guys.  Whoever accepts it first gets it.  Marquis and Pineiro should be happy with that.  And when they pitch I can put Doumit in the OF.

Doug Davis.  Can you give me one more year old man?  The 6.50 ERA last year says, "no".  The 100 total innings pitched last year and 4.50-4.80 ERA estimators say, "maybe".  If not, Kenshin Kawakami will be a phone call away in AAA.

Bullpen
I'm not really gonna mess with hit.  I'll invite a bunch of guys to spring training on minimum deals and see who can make the team.  Maybe it'll be some of those guys I listed, maybe it won't.

There you go, $100 million in free agents.  Using some very quick WAR projections, I get my team winning about 78 games.  I tried to be overly conservative, so maybe this is a .500 team.

Contract Analysis: Jamey Carroll

Not to suggest that Minnesota is not the most interesting place in the world...

They've signed Jamey Carroll for 2 years and $7 million.

The Dodger's were panned when they signed Carroll for 2 years and $3.8 million.  Now he's making twice that per year.

He certainly helped himself with his play in LA.  Prior to coming to LA Carroll averaged 1.8 fWAR per 500 plate appearances.   In his 2 years in LA he averaged 2.4 fWAR per 500 plate appearances.  The increase was mostly with the bat.  Prior to LA Carroll offense as measured by wRC+ was 15% less than the league average.  With LA he hit 5% better than the league average.  Colletti certainly got his money's worth.  Will new Twins' GM Terry Ryan get the same return?

It's hard to predict a player playing his age 38 and 39 seasons will improve upon what he's done.  It's hard to say that that player will remain the same.

Let's assume that Carroll's offense will hold constant.  He didn't have any crazy BABIPs.  He hit line drives.  He took walks.  He made contact.  No out of control power numbers.  In fact, Carroll's 2010 and 2011 numbers are pretty similar to his career numbers.  Is increase relative to the league, is because the league average decreased.  I think this makes it more likely that Carroll keeps on chugging along.

Defense may be a different story.  Apparently, Carroll will be the Twins' starting SS.

Carroll was signed to be a backup IFer with LA.  He ended up playing more than was likely expected since Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, and Juan Uribe couldn't stay healthy. Carroll played: 770 innings at 2B, 73 innings at 3rd and 1080 innings at SS.  That's not a lot of innings but:

2010 2B: UZR/150 = 11.4
2010 SS: UZR/150 = 4


2011 2B: UZR/150 = -8
2011 SS: UZR/150 = -6

A weighted average gives us -2 UZR/150 at 2B and -1 UZR/150 at SS.

That both went from positive to negative is a concern.

According to Tom Tango's Fan Scouting Report
In 2011 Carroll rated 3.34 on a scale of 1 - 5
In 2010 Carroll rated 3.45 on a scale of 1 - 5

Not much difference there.

Hard to draw too many conclusions about his defense.

On to the chart...

If Carroll gets 500 PA's I expect him to be worth about 2 fWAR.  He put up 2.2 fWAR in 510 PA's last year.  He seems to be able to defy aging, so instead of the .5 WAR dropoff I'm taking .25 WAR off in 2013.  Assuming $5.25 million per WAR and 5% inflation, we get the following:

*Click to make bigger

The Twins can expect $13 million of surplus value from Carroll.  That's a lot of leeway.  Carroll would only need to put up 1.3 WAR this year to earn the money for both years of his contract (1.3*5.25=7).  So there's not much risk for the Twins.

Even if Carroll falls apart he sure to be an upgrade over what happened last year.  Twins shortstops (Trevor Plouffe, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Matt Tolbert, and Alexi Casilla) combined to hit .238/.292/.320 and produce -1.4 WAR (prorated by innings at SS).

Carroll hit .290/.368/.344 for reference.  Spending $3.5 million this year for a 3.5 WAR improvement is pretty efficient use of resources.  We won't talk about the $3 million they are paying Nishioka.

Carroll is certainly a better player than Juan Rivera and Rod Barajas.  2011 Dodgers who both signed for 2 years and $8 million this week.

It'll be interesting to see how the market for guys like Clint Barmes and Jerry Hairston pans out.  

Contract Analysis: Jonathan Papelbon

The Phillies are apparently close to signing Jonathan Phapelbon for 4 years and $50 million.

This after a reported 4 year $44 million deal for Ryan Madson didn't materialize yesterday.

This seems like a lot of money for a reliever.

Papelbon has averaged about 66 innings a year over the last 6 seasons.  At that rate Papelbon will pitch (66*4) 264 innings with the Phils.  Or about 20 innings more than what Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander or CC Sabathia will give you in 1 season.  Halladay is the best pitching in baseball.  Anyone think Halladay is worth $50 million a season?

Now, to be fair, Papelbon does pitch more highly leveraged innings than Halladay.   This is measured by pLI

Halladay's pLI for last season was 1.1.  His career pLI is 1.05.  A number greater than 1 means that he's been involved in slightly higher leverage than average (1.0) situations.
Papelbon's pLI for last season was 1.69.  His career pLI is 1.83.  His pLI in 2009 and 2010 was over 2.00.

Papelbon has produced 15.1 WAR in 429.3 career innings.  That's 2.3 WAR / 66 innings
Halladay has produced 69.8 WAE in 2531 career innings.  That's 1.8 WAR / 66 innings

Maybe there is some evidence that Papelbon should be paid a higher per inning rate than Halladay.  But over twice as much?

On to the chart...

*Click to inPHlate the size of

The chart assumes that the value of 1 WAR is $5.25 million (5% more than last season) and inflation continues at 5% per year.  It also assumes that Papelbon produces 2.5 WAR in 2012 and 2013 and decreases to 2.0 WAR in 2014 and 2015.  I feel that this is an optimistic prediction.

With those parameters we get Papelbon's expected production to be almost exactly $50 million.  Remember, that's if everything goes right.  Papelbon has to pitch, for the next 4 seasons, at a level greater than he's pitched the previous six years.

Now, the Phillies do have a lot of money.  They are in a position to try and win now with a core of Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Utley, Howard, Pence, Victorino, Chooch, etc so they do have more reason to 'go for it' than some other teams.

They also have to find a shortstop, outfielder, and part-time first baseman for next season.

An aggressive move for Philly.

For kicks, let's see how the numbers would have looked with Madson.

Madson has produced 1.3 WAR per 66 innings over the last 4 seasons.  Quite a bit less than Papelbon.

If we re-create the chart with Madson as a 1.5 WAR pitcher this year and next and 1 WAR in both 2014 and 2015 we get:

*Click to make Madsoningly larger

Madson produces 5 WAR worth $28 million while being paid $44 million, putting the Phillies $16 million in the hole.

Maybe Phillie Phans should be dancing a little jig




OTHER Contract Analyses:
Willie Bloomquist
Ryan Braun
Adrian Gonzalez (plus Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard)
Clay Buchholz

Contract Analysis: Willie Bloomquist

The DBacks and Willie Bloomquist agreed to a 2-year $3.8 million deal today.


Pretty meh deal.

Bloomquist has produced 1.3 WAR in 845 career games.  That's about .3 WAR per a full season (prorated for 600 PAs).

He's got no bat, career .317 OBP and .337 SLG (almost exactly the same last year) which is 21% below the league average offensively.

His glove isn't much either.  -20 career runs by UZR and a 45 out of 100 on Tom Tango's Fan Scouting Report.

He's considered a utility player and played 2B, SS and the OF for the DBacks last year.  However, his OF defense is -13 runs per 150 games according to UZR.  His play in the infield is about average (1.2 and -0.9 at 2B and SS respectively).  If the DBacks left him as a backup IFer he might be worth half a win over a season.

Hard to imagine the DBacks don't have someone in the minors who could provide half of a win at a quarter of the cost.