Former Dodger Prospects in 2013

It's the time of the baseball year where we look at team's prospects.

Prospect lists are coming out.

We wonder who our teams could trade our prospects for or what prospects they could get in return.

We wonder if our prospects will make the metamorphosis from prospect to big leaguer.

Well, I'm going to take a quick look at how former Dodger prospects have fared with other teams.

These 10 pitchers have been recently traded by the Dodgers and appeared in the majors last season: Nate Eovaldi, Josh Lindblom, James McDonald, Steven Ames, Steve Johnson, Rubby de la Rosa, Josh Wall, Allen Webster, Luis Garcia, and Brian Morris.

They combined to go 17-31 in 372 innings last season with a 5.03 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 4.57 xFIP, 4.60 SIERA and -.6 WAR.
*source

Overall, it doesn't look like the Dodgers gave up too much value.
The best performer was Nate Eovaldi who was traded for Hanley Ramirez.  Eovaldi was 4-6 with a 3.39 ERA in 106 innings for the Marlins last year.  He had ad 3.59 FIP, 4.15 xFIP and was worth 1.5 WAR.  That was a solid season, but certainly nothing like what Hanley Ramirez (5.1 WAR) did.

Other than that, there wasn't much success.  Josh Lindblom (traded with Ethan Martin for Shane Victorino) pitched 31 innings for the rangers with a 5.46 ERA but 4.42 FIP and 4.50 xFIP worth .4 WAR.

Two highly thought of pitching prospects were traded to Red Sox in the mother of all trades Gonzalez, Crawford, Beckett, Punto trade.  Allen Webster and Ruby de la Rosa went 1 - 4 with a 7.78 ERA (6.26 FIP, 5.19 xFIP, 4.84 SIERA) worth -.4 WAR in 42 innings.


The hitters the Dodgers traded fared a bit better.  Carlos Santana, Andrew Lambo, Tony Abreu, Blake DeWitt and Andy LaRoche combined to hit .265/.359/.448 for a .352 wOBA which was 27% better than the league average hitter in 830 PA's.  Their overall WAR was 3.9.
*source

Most of that was Carlos Santana who went to the Indians in 2008 for Casey Blake's salary.  Santana hit .268/.377/.455 in 642 PA's.  That's good for a .364 wOBA (35% better than the league average hitter) and 3.6 WAR.


The Dodgers have traded more than a few players over the last few seasons, only two of them (Eovaldi and Santana) provided substantial value in 2013.

Dodger infield: Juan Uribe and Mark Ellis

The Dodgers didn't pick up Mark Ellis' option for about $4 million.

Now he's signed with the Cardinals.  I don't know for how much, but I'd guess something around $3-$4 million.  

The Dodgers didn't feel they needed Ellis as a starter after acquiring Yasiel Puig Jr Alexander Guerrero.    I hope they are right, but I don't see a reason that they shouldn't have picked up Ellis' option.  If Guerrero is capable of manning the position from Opening Day then the Dodgers shouldn't have had much problem trading Ellis (the Yankees still don't have a starting 2Bman).  At least that way they would have picked up something in return instead of letting him go for nothing.  And, if Guerrero isn't ready, then they have a perfectly acceptable starting 2Bman.  

That he signed with the Cardinals is somewhat interesting.  Dodger fans won't forget that it was the Cardinals that dispatched the Dodgers from the playoffs last season.  Cardinal fans know that the Cardinals are in much the same situation as the Dodgers at 2B this year.  Where LA has Alexander Guerrero, Stl has Kolten Wong.  Wong is a highly rated prospect but has the same questions as Guerrero - can he repeat his success at the major league level.  The Cards got Ellis as insurance.  The Dodgers went without.

The more important move, though, was the Dodgers re-signing Juan Uribe.  While I was hoping that the team would sign, first, Joel Peralta (who went to the Cardinals), then, Omar Infante the Dodgers ended up with Uribe.

Everyone knows how terrible Uribe was in 2011 and 2012 so I won't post the grisly numbers.  As bad as he was those 2 years he was that good in 2013.  He went from hitting at about half of the league rate to hitting 16% better.  Some of it was batted ball luck (.240 BABIP to .322 and 4.5% HR/FB rate to 10.5%), the rest was...I don't know.  His peripherals are all similar.  Some was made of Uribe being in better shape.  Hard to believe that is the entire cause.  

Anyway, expectations have to be tempered regarding Uribe.  He's probably not going to be as good in 2014 as he was in 2013.  ZiPS, STEAMER and Oliver projections have Uribe hitting .243/.304/.392 and 2.2 WAR in 550 PA's.  That sounds about right.  That's a bit worse than league average hitting combined with some plus defense making Uribe a useful player.  

Also hard to overlook Uribe's place in the clubhouse.  According to AJ Ellis, "If you ask everyone in this clubhouse who is their favorite teammate, 95 percent will tell you Juan Uribe"

If Uribe provides 2 WAR of value in 2014 then he will have earned nearly all of his $15 million contract before it's half over - good value despite the forthcoming comments from people when Uribe's hitting exactly as described above.

After Peralta and Infante were taken off the market, Uribe was really the only reasonable choice.  That the Dodgers got him is no problem.

Let's all hope for 2 more seasons of the Uribear.

*http://www.mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2013/11/12/2013-dodgers-review-xx-3b-juan-uribe/

Will Smith trade: A-Ok(i) for the Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers traded Aoki to the Royals for Will Smith.

#Brewers announce trade of Norichika Aoki to #Royals for Will Smith.

*source

 Aoki's been a good player the last 2 seasons for the Brewers since coming over from the NPB.  But he was in his last year of his very team-friendly contract and Khris Davis was knocking at the major league door.


STEAMER and Oliver combine to project Aoki for a .288/.355/.393 line and 2.4 WAR per 600 PAs
STEAMER and Oliver combine to project Kris Davis for a .253/.331/.449 line and 1.7 WAR per 600 PAs

That's roughly equal contributions.  Aoki looks to be a bit better but it's less than a WAR and there could certainly be some error bar overlap.

Will Smith was a pretty highly rated prospect for the Royals.  He made 16 decent starts for the Royals last season.  Putting up a remarkably consistent 4.66 FIP, 4.64 xFIP, 4.69 SIERA line.  The Royals moved him to the bullpen this season, which can't really be seen as a good thing since their rotation was so bad, and he was excellent as a reliever.  He K'd over 30% of the hitters he faced while only walking about 5%. He had a 3.53 FIP, 2.50 xFIP and 2.05 SIERA.  The last 2 numbers being particularly dominant

In giving up Aoki, a good, but but not much more than good, player the Mariners got back about the max of what could be expected.  A pitcher who looks like a better than average reliever who'll cost basically nothing for 3 seasons and who could work his way into the starting rotation.


For the Royals...I don't like it as much


We saw that Aoki was projected for about 2.4 WAR per 600 PA's
The same projections have David Lough and Maxwell producing about 1.9 WAR per 600 PAs

Aoki's acquisition is only about a .5 WAR upgrade.

For that, they give up the same thing that Milwaukee acquired - Will Smith and his above average relief work and possible ability to start.

Brian Wilson: what (not) to expect

A lot of rumors about Wilson coming back to pitch for the Dodgers next season.

I'd be ok with that.  I might prefer someone like Joaquin Benoit though.  STEAMER projects Wilson for a 3.50 FIP next season and Benoit for a 3.16 FIP.

The latest rumor has Wilson taking a 1 year deal with a player option for 2015.  I'm not a fan of player options.  If Wilson pitches well, he can opt out and become a free agent.  If he's terrible, or injured again, the Dodgers are on the hook for however many millions.

But that's all kind of besides the point of this post.

Wilson only faced 49 major league hitters last year, so looking at his .66 ERA (or 2.02 FIP or 2.82 xFIP or 2.66 SIERA) isn't really helpful.

What we can look at are his pitches.  The common refrain was that Wilson's pitches were back.  Were they?

In 2009 and 2010[/URL] Wilson's pitches were like this
62% 4-seam fastballs at 97.0 MPH with 3.4 inches of horizontal movement and 8.9 inches of vertical movement.
35% cutters at 89.5 MPH with 2.5 H-movement and 1.4 V-movement
*BrooksBaseball

This season Wilson threw
70% cutters at 89.5 MPH with .5 H-movement and 3.9 V-movement
15% 4-seam fastball at 94.4 MPH with 4.4 inches of H-movement and 8.2 inches of V-movement
13% sinkers at 94.4 MPH with 8.6 inches of H-movement and 6.1 inches of V-movement
*BrooksBaseball

First thing that's easy to notice is that Wilson has greatly increased his cutter usage.  He's maintained his speed on his cutter but the movement is much different.  His cutter now has virtually no horizontal movement but he's added a bit of vertical movement.

In 2013 13% of Wilson's pitches were classified as sinkers.  Does he throw a sinker now?  I don't know.  His sinker is similar to his 4-seam fastball in terms of speed and direction of movement.  Were those sinkers just fastballs with a different movement?  Maybe.

Either way, his fastball has lost about 3 MPH.  Depending if those sinkers are misclassified fastball or not, his movement might be similar, or he's gained significant horizontal movement.


As I said, I'm ok with the Dodgers bringing Wilson back.  We just shouldn't expect him to be the 2009-2010 version or his 2013 results.

Ronaldo Belisario is Jim Johnson

Jim Johnson was traded tonight from the Baltimore Orioles to the Oakland A's for Jemile Weeks.  Johnson will make $10 million dollars this year.

Ronaldo Belisario might get non-tendered by the Dodgers because they don't want to pay him about $3 million.



But, they are the same guy - outside of 100+ SAVEZ for Johnson

Over the last 3 years
Belisario: 20% K's, 10% BB's, 63% Ground balls, 3.36 FIP, 3.46 xFIP, 3.16 SIERA, 3.88 TIPS
Johnson: 17% K's, 6% BB's, 61% Ground balls, 3.30 FIP, 3.47 xFIP, 3.07 SIERA, 3.92 TIPS
*source

And last season,

Johnson gave up 0 runs in 60 of his 74 outings
Belisario gave up 0 runs in 58 of his 77 outings

Johnson gave up 1 or 2 runs in 12 of his 74 outings
Belisario gave up 1 or 2 runs in 17 of his 77 outings

Johnson gave up 4 runs once and 5 runs once
Belisario gave up 4 runs once and 5 runs once

*Johnson's game log
*Belisario's game log

Imagination gone wild: What if Prince Fielder were a SS?

I was recently involved in an online discussion of the Prince Fielder/Ian Kinsler trade and the signing of Jhonny Peralta by the St. Louis Cardinals.  Someone stated that Peralta was no more than a utility infielder who could sometimes hit.  I pointed out that, over the last 3 seasons, Peralta was actually a top 5 SS.  Someone else stated that Prince, were he to play SS, would also be a top 5 SS.  I thought that was ridiculous, but decided I'd try to look at it as objectively as possible.


Over the last 3 seasons, Fielder has 111 batting runs, -18 base running runs, 61 replacement runs and -10 fielding and -37 positional runs for 107 total runs.
*source


If we assume that his batting, base running and overall playing time would stay the same, which is probably an optimistic assumption given the likely additional strain of playing SS instead of 1B, then we only need to adjust his positional and defensive runs.

The positional adjustment is the easiest to adjust.  The adjustment for 1B is -12.5 runs per 1350 innings, the adjustment for SS is +7.5 runs per  1350 innings.  Fielder's -37 positional runs represent (-37/-12.5) 3.0 defensive seasons.  Three defensive seasons at SS is worth (3 * 7.5) 23 runs.

At this point Fielder at SS is worth 111 batting runs+-18 base running runs+23 positional runs+61 replacement runs.  That's 167 runs all told.  That'd make him, by far, the best SS in the league.  Troy Tulowitzki has 114 runs.

But we still haven't factored in Fielder's defense compared to the average SS.  I'm not really sure that we can.

Fielder has been about 6 runs worse than the average 1B each season of his career.  But the average SS is a much better defensive player than the average 1B.

I think it's safe to assume that Fielder would be the worst defensive SS in baseball.

Since 2002, the UZR era, the worst season by a SS (minimum 650 innings, about half a season) is Dee Gordon's 2012 season in which UZR says he was worth -27 runs per 1350 innings.
*http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=650&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2011&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=25,a

That's a somewhat amusing comparison.  Dee Gordon is listed at 5'11" 160 lbs.  Prince is listed at 5'11" 275 lbs.  Those are listed weights and I think it's entirely possible that Prince weighs twice as much as Gordon.

http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?813284-Easiest-defensive-position-to-play-in-baseball/page6

http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/juice-marlins-beat-giants-bury-may-rays-win-121523585.html

I'm going to go out on a limb as say that Prince would be a worse defensive SS than Gordon.  I'd go so far as to say that he would be considerably worse.  But how much is considerably?


UZR can be broken down into different components.
Range runs - attempts to measure a player's range; how many balls he does/doesn't get to compared to average.
Error runs - attempts to measure how many runs a player saves/costs his team by avoiding/making errors
Double play runs - attempts to measure how many runs a player saves/costs his team by turning/not turning double plays.

I'm going to assume that Fielder would be the worst at all 3 of the above.  So, what would that look like for Fielder's overall defensive worth at SS?

It's worth noting here that most of Gordon's poor UZR was due to making errors, his range and double plays were bad, but not historically bad.  His errors were.

The worst SS in terms of double play runs (per 1350 innings) was, go figure, 2012 Dee Gordon at -5 runs per 1350 innings.  If we say that Fielder was equally as bad as Gordon, I've little doubt he'd be much worse than Gordon, that'd be (3*-5)-15 runs over the 3 seasons.

The worst SS in terms of range runs was, not surprisingly, 2012 Derek Jeter at -17.5 runs per 1350 innings.  Anyone think that Fielder has Jeter's range?  I don't.  But if we give Fielder 3 seasons as poor as Jeters' 2012 that's (3*-17.5) -53 runs for 3 seasons.

The worst SS in terms of error runs, bet you guessed that it, was 2012 Dee Gordon at -13 runs per 1350 innings.  Again, I think that Dee's footwork and hands around 2B would be much better than Fielder's, but if we say that Fielder was as good as Gordon then he'd be worth (3*-13) -39 runs per the 3 seasons.

If we add all of that up (and remembering that this is-I believe-an optimistic look at Fielder's possible performance at SS, we get Fielder being (-15-53-39) -107 runs worse than the average SS.  Quite a bit worse than Gordon's -27 runs

Let's add that to his other performance from above:
111 batting runs, -18 base running runs, -107 fielding runs, 23 positional runs, 61 replacement runs = 71 total runs.

71 total runs between 2011 and 2013 would have put Fielder 12th among major league SS, between Hanley Ramirez (84 runs) and Marco Scutaro (70 runs), and worth about 2.5 WAR per season.
*http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2013&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

To emphasize again, I think these are the most ridiculously optimistic assumptions that I can present with a straight face.  I think it much more likely that Fielder would be a -50 (per 1350 innings) or worse SS were he to play there everyday.  Not to mention the additional strain on his body that would decrease his hitting, baserunning, and ability to play everyday.

Trade Analysis: Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder

The first blockbuster of the 2013-2014 off season!

All the details aren't out yet but I'm going to look at the deal just a straight swap.

Per Clay Davenport transactions,

Ian Kinsler is expected to produce 81.6 runs over the next 3 seasons and will be paid $46 million to do so.  Assuming $5.5 million for 10 runs in 2014 and 5% inflation each year the value of Kinsler's production is worth $47 million.  We'll call that a wash.  Kinsler will be paid exactly for his expected production.

*http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/KINSLER19820622A.shtml

Prince Fielder is expected to produce 214.3 runs (assuming 20 runs in his final year - a 5 run drop from the previous season) over the rest of his contract and will be paid $168 million to so do.  With the same assumptions, the value of Fielder's production is $134 million.  That's substantially less than the $214 million that he'll be paid.

Right off this looks like a huge win for the Tigers.

But, let's look at the deal a little differently.  Let's just look at the next 3 seasons.

Kinsler's expectancy doesn't change.  He'll produce 82 runs for $46 million.

Prince is expected to produce 111 runs while being paid $72 million.  The value of that production in $64 million.  

Prince is expected to produce 30 more runs than Kinsler over the next 3 seasons.  That's significant.  He'll also be paid $26 million more to do it - that's also significant.   With that $26 million the Tigers should be able to buy ($26 million / ($5.5/10)) 45 more runs on the open market.  Possibly in the form of a 3rd baseman to replace Cabrera who'll move to 1st or to Max Scherzer who could have been traded.

What hasn't been considered so far, and what is very difficult to fully consider, are the other dominoes.  Now, Jurickson Profar will move into the Rangers' starting line up.

Profar is projected to produce 97 runs over the next 3 seasons.  That certainly mitigates the loss of Kinsler.  He'll be doing so at near the league minimum as well.   The Rangers will now have Mitch Moreland available for trade or to move to the OF.  That also adds to the value from the Rangers' end.

*http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/PROFAR19930220A.shtml

The Rangers might be a better team over the next few seasons with Fielder instead of Kinsler.  Still, unless major prospects or major money is changing hands, it's hard to see this as anything but a win for the Tigers.

UPDATE:  The Tigers will send $30 million to the Rangers to cover part of Fielder's salary.  Incidentally, that's exactly the amount that the above analysis indicated that Fielder was expected to be paid in excess of his production.