Dodger Roster 2011

What's the Dodgers' roster going to look like this season?

The following players are under contract and are very likely to start the year on the team.

C Barajas
C Navarro
1B Loney
2B Uribe
3B Blake
SS Furcal
IF Carroll
IF ?????
LF Thames
CF Kemp
RF Ethier
OF Gibbons
OF Gwynn
IF/OF ???

SP Kershaw
SP Billingsley
SP Kuroda
SP Lily
SP Garland
RP Broxton
RP Kuo
RP Guerrier
RP ?????
RP ?????
RP ?????
P Padilla

Looks like there are 5 spots up for grabs:

Back up infielder
Ivan DeJesus
Juan Castro
Dee Gordon

I'm almost certain that the Dodgers will go with Castro here, which is terrible.  But I wouldn't want DeJesus there either.  Carroll was the primary backup infielder last year, and will be again this year.  Meaning that DeJesus will be sitting on the bench most of the time.  Much better for him to be playing every day in Albuquerque.  Dee Gordon will probably take over (soon) after Furcal's contract expires after the season but, same as DeJesus, he needs to be playing not sitting on the bench.

I would have went with Chin-Lung Hu who was traded to the Mets for a meh pitcher, John Antonini

IF/OF
Xavier Paul
Jamie Hoffman
Russ Mitchell
John Lindsey
Jerry Sands

Xavier Paul is out of options which means he will either 1) make the team, 2) be traded, 3) be DFA'd.  I like Paul and would have liked to see him given a shot at the starting LF job, at least in a platoon.  But the Dodgers signed Gwynn and Gibbons.  That's too many left-handed OFers.  Expect the Dodgers to trade Paul soon.  I also like Jamie Hoffman. He's not going to be a starting OFer but he could be an ok 5th OFer.  He has some power, some speed, some defense.  He does everything slightly better than average.

But, I think the Dodgers will go with Russ Mitchell.  6 OFers is too many and we could use the IF depth.  Mitchell can play 1st and 3rd which Carroll and Castro don't really fit for.  Unfortunately, Russ Mitchell isn't very good.

John Lindsey is similar to Mitchell, but doesn't play 3B and is coming off of a broken hand at the end of last season.

Jerry Sands.  Same as Dee Gordon.  He needs to be playing everyday in the minors.  He only played a half-season at AA last year.

Trayvon Robinson.  Same as Sands.  He was in AA last year.  Instead of riding the Dodgers' pine he needs to be playing.

Relief Pitching
There are 3 open slots in the bullpen.  The favorites for those spots are most likely:
Blake Hawksworth
Ramon Troncoso
Ronaldo Belasario
Corey Wade
Kenley Jansen
Scott Elbert
John Link

Realistically, it could be any of these guys.
Hawksworth was acquired for Theriot.  He was a former high draft pick who hasn't done much.  He's out of options so he'll probably take one of the spots unless he's terrible in the spring.  Troncoso and Belasario have experience with the team but both of them had down years last year after successful 2009s. Wade was good in '08 but pitched almost 100 innings between the majors and minors and hasn't been the same since.

Jansen is the most exciting option.  He looked amazing last season in a few innings but he's only been a pitcher for a little over a year.  I think he'll start the season with LA (unless he has a horrid spring) but he still needs to learn how to pitch.  I don't expect him to pitch the whole season in LA.

Elbert is a favorite of mine.  The Dodgers only have 1 left-hander in the bullpen (Kuo) and Kuo will be either the set-up man or closer.  There's an opening for a situational lefty.  Elbert has very good stuff but struggles with control and injuries.  I'd like to see him get a shot.  Dana Eveland or Antonini could end up here as well.

Link. He's a guy.  Came over in the Juan Pierre trade.  Not much upside, but he's not going to kill you either.

Dodgers' leftfield options: Marcus Thames

The Dodgers signed OF Marcus Thames today to spend some time in left field.  My gut reaction was...meh...but I decided to take a closer look.

He's a better hitter than I thought.  Especially if used correctly.

This is Thames' average line vs left-handed pitchers for his career and last 3 years (per 600 PA)
Career:  540 AB, 143 Hits, 32 HR, 54 BB, 134 K, .264 BA, .333 OBP, .505 SLG, .358 wOBA
Last 3:   537 AB, 142 Hits, 33 HR, 54 BB, 147 K, .265 BA, .332 OBP, .498 SLG, .356 wOBA

This is Thames' average line vs right-handed pitchers for his career and last 3 years (per 600 PA)
Career:  545 AB, 129 Hits, 37 HR, 43 BB, 166 K, .236 BA, .296 OBP, .480 SLG, .329 wOBA
Last 3:   543 AB, 136 Hits, 36 HR, 46 BB, 165 K, .251 BA, .307 OBP, .481 SLG, .337 wOBA

Thames is obviously a better hitter vs lefties.  Which is the reason that he was signed.  The Dodgers have Ethier, Gwynn, Gibbons, and Paul as left-handed hitting OFers and only Kemp as a right-handed hitter.  Players with wOBA between .350 and .360 (as Thames has vs lefties) are: Derek Jeter, Vlad Guerrero, Robinson Cano, and Carl Crawford.

Unfortunately, only about 30% of at bats come against left-handed pitching.  That won't be the case for Thames this season though.  Teams have already realized that Thames hits lefties much better as 43% of his career at bats have come against lefties, including 60% last season.

So the Dodgers will have this player in the lineup about 30% of the time.
.265/.330/.500 .330 wOBA per 600 PAs with 33 HR

Two problems:  Defense and the other 70% of the time.

Thames is a terrible defender.  So is Ethier and the reviews as Kemp as a CFer are mixed.  Lets leave it at that.

The other 70% of the time.  Thames will get some at bats vs righties.  He's not good, but not terrible against them.  The other options are likely Gwynn and Gibbons.

Gwynn is a terrible hitter and excellent defender.
Gibbons was out of major league baseball in 2008 and 2009 and only had 80 PA's last season.  But they were a productive 80 PA's and he looked good in the minors as well...but what to expect from him is... volatile

For Gibbon's career vs righties:
.259/.319/.464 .336 wOBA per 600 PAs with 26 HR

That's not much better than would be expected out of Thames vs righties.

Unfortunately, Gibbons is also a poor defensive player who will give back a lot of the runs he created with his bat with his poor glove.  

I'm still not convinced that an OF of Ethier in left, Gwynn in center and Kemp in Right isn't the best option.

Honus Wagner v Derek Jeter

Someone suggested to me the other day (January 6th.  The day that I had dinner over at my friends Jason and Laurie's house) that Derek Jeter was a better player than Honus Wagner.

This just isn't true.

We can look at Fangraph's WAR graphs

and see that although they started off similarly between ages 21 to 25, Wagner put a lot of difference between himself and Jeter between ages 26 and 36.  Jeter is still playing, of course, but his recent performances don't look like they will be enough to surpass (or get near) Wagner.

Another way of looking at this is WAR by age

Again.  Jeter and Wagner were close in the early going but Wagner pulls away rather steadily.

One more WAR graph.  This one shows WAR by highest season.

The distance between Wagner and Jeter is...rather large.  Jeter's best season (almost 8 WAR) is roughly Wagner's average season.


Now.  Not everyone likes (or understands) WAR.  Let's look at some other things...

Batting Average

Jeter .295
Wager .327

All Wagner

On-Base Percentage

Jeter .385
Wagner .391

Closer...but still Wagner

Slugging Percentage

Jeter .452
Wagner .466

Again, Wagner.

These graphs and rough comparisons are actually skewed towards Jeter.

Wagner played in the deadball era when offense was much harder to come by.

For example, Jeter and Wagner have nearly identical On Base Percentages.  But Wagner lead the league 4 times in OBP.  Jeter never has.

Wagner 6 times lead the league in Slugging Percentage.  Jeter never has.

Wagner won 8 batting titles.  Jeter has never won a batting title.

Derek Jeter's career OPS+ (which measures On Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage divided by the league average) is 119.  Meaning that Jeter has been 19% better than the average hitter over his career.  Wagner's career OPS+ was 150.  Wagner was 50% better than than the average player.


The game WAS a lot different in Wagner's day.  A replacement level player in Wagner's time was surely less of a player than in Jeter's.  The average player in Wagner's time was also worse than in Jeter's.  But there is no other logical way to compare players across eras than to compare them to the players that they played against.

Jeter is a no-doubt Hall of Famer, but Wagner dominated his peers to a much greater degree than Jeter did.

And his baseball card is worth a lot more.

What is an ace?

It seems a lot of people have unreasonable expectations of what an 'Ace' starting pitcher is.  These expectations carry on down through each level of starter (#2, #3, #4 and #5).

A lot of smarter people than I have done similar exercises and done them more rigorously, but I'll throw up a quick post just to give an idea.

The job of a pitcher is to prevent the opposing team from scoring runs (Now, some pitchers-those who play 'real' baseball in the National League-also have the opportunity to help their team score runs...).  So, it reasons that the pitchers who do that best are 'aces'.  Each team has to have an 'ace' so it figures that the 30 pitchers (one per team) who prevent the most runs over the course of a season are nominal 'aces'.

Using Fangraphs I ordered each major league starting pitcher for 2010 by most runs prevented.  I then separated those into groups of 30.  The top 30 pitchers would be 'aces' and on down the line for the 2nd - 5th slots.  All pitchers after #150 were grouped together into the 'AAA' category.  I then took the simple average for each group and assume that as a 'representative' of each group.  These are the results.

The average 'ace' had a season line of: 14 - 10 3.23 ERA in 32 starts, 212 innings, 65 walks and 192 strike outs.
Pitchers in this category included: Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw, Colby Lewis, CJ Wilson, Brett Myers, Matt Cain and Ricky Romero.

The average #2 had a season line of: 12 - 11 3.58 ERA in 31 starts, 193 innings, 62 walks and 148 strike outs.
Pitchers in this category included: Matt Latos, Cole Hamels, Chris Carpenter, Clay Bucholz, Johan Santana, Derek Lowe, Jason Vargas, and RA Dickey.

The average #3 had a season line of: 10 - 8 3.99 ERA in 27 starts, 160 innings, 50 walks, 126 strike outs.
Pitchers in this category included: Stephen Strasburg, Ervin Santana, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Ted Lilly, Andy Pettitte, Barry Zito, Carlos Zambrano, and Joe Blanton

The average #4 had a season line of: 8 - 8 4.51 ERA in 23 starts, 135 innings, 45 walks, 95 strike outs.
Pitchers in this category included: Rick Porcello, Matt Garza, Jake Peavy, Luke Hochevar, Bronson Arroyo, AJ Burnett, Mike Leake, John Lannan

The average #5 had a season line of: 6 - 7 4.52 ERA in 18 starts, 102 innings, 35 walks, 72 strike outs.
Pitchers in this category included: Aaron Harang, Jeremy Bonderman, Kenshin Kawakami, Jon Garland, JA Happ, Kyle Kendrick, Brad Bergeson and Ben Sheets.

Adding up all the starts made by the top 5 starts gives 130 starts.  That means that an average team can expect 32 starts made by pitchers other than the top 5.

These pitchers had an average season line of: 2 - 4 6.18 ERA in 8 starts, 40 innings, 19 walks, 28 strike outs.
Pitchers in this category included: Armando Galarraga, Nick Blackburn, Jamie Moyer, Vin Mazzaro, Wade LeBlanc, Dontrelle Willis, Jeff Suppan, Gil Meche, Javier Vazquez, Oliver Perez, and Rich Harden.  As well as lesser knowns like: Carlos Montasterios, Anthony Lerew, David Huff, Sean O'Sullivan, Luke French, and Barry Enright.

Now I'd imagine that most people would see a pitcher with a 14 - 10 record with a 3.23 ERA and think that he was a 'good' pitcher and not representative of the best 30 pitchers in baseball.

Look at the pitchers outside of the top 5 who make starts (an average of 32 per team).  They are terrible.  Hopefully this shows the value of quantity of innings vs just quality of innings.  When a pitcher like Roy Halladay is capable of pitching 250 innings a season he is effectively taking away 38 innings (250 minus the 212 innings expected of an ace) from these replacement level pitchers.

Speaking of replacement level, the following is a chart of the average WAR for each level of pitcher.
Ace = 5.05
#2 = 3.25
#3 = 2.28
#4 = 1.52
#5 = .77
AAA = -.01
The AAA pitchers performed almost exactly at replacement level.

Now one of the (many) problems with this study is the use of win-loss records and ERA.  These win-loss records are effected by the quality of the pitcher's team.  In the Ace category we have SS Sabathia at 21 - 7 and Anibal Sanchez at 13 - 12.  This problem isn't relegated to this study only.  W - L is a poor measure of a pitcher.

ERA is also a problem.  This study makes no differentiation between NL and AL.  Clearly, pitchers in the NL have an easier time of it getting to face the opposing pitcher a time or three or four while an AL Pitcher has to face David Ortiz.  But, again, this problem isn't limited to this study and is a basic flaw in using ERA to compare pitchers.

I'm going to recreate the charts using more SABR stats
Level IP, BB/9, K/9, FIP, xFIP, WAR
Ace   212, 2.8, 8.2, 3.25, 3.66, 5.05
#2    192, 2.9, 6.9, 3.75, 4.05, 3.25
#3    160, 2.9, 7.1, 3.99, 3.93, 2.28
#4    135, 3.0, 6.3, 4.22, 4.39, 1.52
#5    102, 3.1, 6.3, 4.34, 4.47, 0.77
AAA    40, 4.2, 6.2, 5.37, 5.03, -.01

A couple of interesting things to note:
1st: The difference between the Ace group and the #2's is the largest jump in WAR between any two groups.  This is mostly because of the dominance of a few pitchers like Lee and Halladay.  It is amazing (and understated) just how much better these guys are than most other pitchers out there.

2nd: The small difference between the #2's and #3's.  The walk rates and strike out rates are basically even between the two groups.  And the #3 group has the better xFIP.  The only reason that the #2 group out performs the #3 group is number of innings.  Again, quantity of innings plays a big role along with quality of innings.

Next time your team signs a pitcher with a 10 - 8 record and 3.99 ERA in 160 innings realize just what you are getting.  One of the top 100 pitchers in the league.

Day Planners: December 2nd

December 2nd

1999
The first day to register for next semester's classes at UNM
Had a couple of classes and something big with 'Problem #4'
Went to visit my grandmother in the hospital after school

2000
Had to be at my mom's house around 10:00 AM to go to Carlsbad.
Presumably to see the Christmas on the Pecos

2001
Had to work
Call Tre after work about getting together to study for our EMT class

2002
Worked at Keva Juice from 7 - 3
Defined Fitness afterwords for 'Cardio'
Had to stop at the bank
Had to go to Sams Club
Was supposed to call Brad and Val about going to see The Sound of Music
I also was supposed to call Jason and
Write a letter to my grandfather
Lobos played NMSU at 7:00 as well-likely women's basketball

2003
Worked with a client from 9:30 - 12:30
Then supposed to go for a swim at the gym before
Working with another client at 3:00
There was also a show at the Launchpad.

2008
Living in Sweden
Was supposed to workout legs in the apartment gym
That evening I was supposed to sign up with some temporary job agencies

2009
Just arrived in Copenhagen, Denmark 3 days ago.

Player Review/Prediction: Aaron Hill

Aaron Hill

Aaron Hill had a terrible 2010: 205/.271/.394 (BA/OBP/SLG) which led to 1.1 WAR almost all based on defense and position.  His offensive ‘contribution’ was 14 runs below replacement level.

This was especially disappointing considering his 2009: .286/.330/.499 which led to 3.9 WAR and 18 runs above replacement level on offense.  All told that was a swing of 32 runs offensively.

What happened?

You should know what we’re going to look at by now.

Walk and strike out rates didn’t change much

His power remained above average

BABIP fell off of a cliff

He went from being a guy with an average or better BABIP to the lowest BABIP in the majors among qualified players.  So there we go.  Expect a full bounce back from Hill next season as luck corrects itself.  If only it were that easy.

There is a huge change in Hill’s batted ball profile in 2010. 

His ground ball rate is around where it has been.  

But his fly ball rate soared upwards while his line drive rate cratered. 

We know that line drives have the highest BABIPs (.750ish) and fly balls have the lowest (.140) so we’d fully expect his BABIP to to decrease.

Using the major league average BABIPs on Hill’s batted ball profile we get that he should have been expected to have had a BABIP of .240.  His actual BABIP was .196.  If Hill had had a BABIP of .240, he would have had 24 more hits.  If all of those hits were singles, his line for 2010 would have looked like: .251/.305/.440, a heck of a lot better. 

Do Hill’s BABIPs usually follow league average?

For his career:

Ground Ball BABIP = .241 – YEP

Fly Ball BABIP = .136 – YEP

Line Drive BABIP = .706 – Not quite.

If we give Hill a BABIP consistent with his career averages we come up with a BABIP of .234 which gives Hill and extra 22 hits and a line of: .246/.300/.435.  Still much better than his actual 2010.

But .245/.300/.435 is still way off from his .270/.325/.427 career numbers and we still don’t know what’s going on with the lack of line drives and increase in fly balls.

In 2009 Hill hit 36 home runs, that’s more than double how many he hit in his 4 previous seasons combined.  We know how the Blue Jays have emphasized hitting for power (see Bautista, Jose for Exhibit A) the last couple of years.  Have the Blue Jays encouraged Hill to try and hit more fly balls in order to get more home runs?  I don’t know.  He hit 36 in 2009 without resorting to hitting more than half of his balls in the air.  In 2009 Hill also had a HR/FB rate of 14.9% compared to a career rate of 8.6%.

Year HR/FB, Isolated Power

2010 10.8%, .189

2009 14.9%, .213

2008 2.4%, .098

2007 8.6%, .168

2006 3.6%, .095

2005 2.6%, .111

Hill’s HR/FB and ISO are all over the map.  League average ISO tends to be around .150 and HR/FB around 10%.  Some years Hill is well above average, and some he is well below.  So, who is the real Aaron Hill?

I don’t really know.  His walk and strike out rates seem to be established but his power numbers are all over the place and the sudden change in batted balls is just weird.

Batted ball rates stabilize over a relatively small number of plate appearances (well below the 580 Hill received last year) so it’s unlikely that his increase in fly balls was a fluke and much more likely that it was something conscious in his plate approach.  It sure seems to be a bad plate approach though.  Aaron Hill is 5’11” and 200 lbs (about the same size that I am).  He’s not a hulking slugger who should be trying to launch every shot into the seats.   I’d hope that the Blue Jays see this and try to get him to hit less fly balls.

I’m not encouraged by Hill’s month-to-month batted ball data

Month FB%

April 51.7%

May 48.9%

June 56.7%

July 51.4%

August 61.7%

Sept/Oct 53.6%

Doesn’t appear that they tried to get him to alter his swing during the season at all as he hit more fly balls the second half of the season, than he did the first.

So, what do I make of it?

Official Prediction:

.255 batting average, 540 AB, 26 doubles, 17 home runs, 38 walks, 76 strike outs, .260 BABIP, .307 OBP and .411 SLG

That’s splitting the difference in his FB rate between his career and 2010 and coming up with 48% fly balls and 15% line drives.

If he keeps hitting fly balls like he did in 2010 the batting average and On Base Percentage will come down with a few more home runs.

If he returns to his 2006-2009 batted ball rates then expect the average and On Base Percentage to come up and a drop in home runs.

Day Planners: November 23rd

1999
Class in the morning
Some stuff that is crossed out-guess that I accomplished it
Come out take a shower
Go see Suicidal Tendencies at the Launch Pad

2000
Was Thanksgiving.  Probably ate Turkey

2001
Play basketball in the morning
Wash my car in the afternoon

2002
Picked up a shift at work from 9:30 to 12:30.  This required me to drive to Las Lunas
Stop by my office to:
     See Val
     Give in some paperwork
     Get some paperwork
Sometime during the day I had to:
     Call UNM about my schedule
     Pick up and drop off some books at the Library

2009
Use my next to last clip on my ten times gym card