Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Why Baseball is F’n Awesome! 2011 Final day AL Edition

Final day of the season.  Boston Red Sox and Tampa Rays tied for the final playoff spot.  A win for either team will continue their season.  

Dustin Pedroia singles and homers to give the Red Sox a 3 – 2 lead.

At the same time the Yankees were pummeling the Rays 7 – 0

Then the rains came in Boston; delaying the game

We have to assume that the Red Sox players were A) feeling somewhat confident with a lead and the Rays looking like they would be beat and B) watching the Yankees/Rays as the Rays began to come back.  

Then, with the Rays down to their last strike, Dan Johnson, hitting .103 on the season, does this

Game tied.  Going to extra innings. 

The Red Sox and Orioles remain scoreless as:

In Tampa the  Yankees get the first two batters on base in the top of the 12th.  With the score tied, nobody out, and runners at first and third the Yankees have a 82% chance of winning the game when an outstanding defensive play by Rays’ star Evan Longoria erases the Yankees' runner at 3rd and doubles the Rays’ chance of winning to 42%.   A strikeout and groundout leave the game tied in the bottom of the ninth.

In Boston, Jonathan Papelbon retires the first two batters that he faces in the ninth.  With a 3-2 lead and only one out remaining, Boston has a 95% chance of winning the game. 

Chris Davis hits Papelbon’s first pitch for a double.  Boston still has an 86% chance of winning the game.  Papelbon throws 2 balls, then Nolan Reimold swings and misses at two fastballs.  Boston is one strike away from winning when Reimold hits a ground rule double over the right centerfield fence.  

3 – 3 game. 

One ball and one strike later Robert Andino comes to bat

Red Sox have to root for the Yankees to beat the Rays so Boston and Tampa can play one game tomorrow for the playoff spot.  If Tampa wins Boston goes home. 

Bottom of the 12th in Tampa. 

After an Upton strike out, Evan Longoria who's already homered and saved a run with his glove comes up to bat.  

What does collapse look like in graph form?

And from the other perspective

Baseball is F’n Awesome!!!!

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