Brian Wilson: what (not) to expect

A lot of rumors about Wilson coming back to pitch for the Dodgers next season.

I'd be ok with that.  I might prefer someone like Joaquin Benoit though.  STEAMER projects Wilson for a 3.50 FIP next season and Benoit for a 3.16 FIP.

The latest rumor has Wilson taking a 1 year deal with a player option for 2015.  I'm not a fan of player options.  If Wilson pitches well, he can opt out and become a free agent.  If he's terrible, or injured again, the Dodgers are on the hook for however many millions.

But that's all kind of besides the point of this post.

Wilson only faced 49 major league hitters last year, so looking at his .66 ERA (or 2.02 FIP or 2.82 xFIP or 2.66 SIERA) isn't really helpful.

What we can look at are his pitches.  The common refrain was that Wilson's pitches were back.  Were they?

In 2009 and 2010[/URL] Wilson's pitches were like this
62% 4-seam fastballs at 97.0 MPH with 3.4 inches of horizontal movement and 8.9 inches of vertical movement.
35% cutters at 89.5 MPH with 2.5 H-movement and 1.4 V-movement
*BrooksBaseball

This season Wilson threw
70% cutters at 89.5 MPH with .5 H-movement and 3.9 V-movement
15% 4-seam fastball at 94.4 MPH with 4.4 inches of H-movement and 8.2 inches of V-movement
13% sinkers at 94.4 MPH with 8.6 inches of H-movement and 6.1 inches of V-movement
*BrooksBaseball

First thing that's easy to notice is that Wilson has greatly increased his cutter usage.  He's maintained his speed on his cutter but the movement is much different.  His cutter now has virtually no horizontal movement but he's added a bit of vertical movement.

In 2013 13% of Wilson's pitches were classified as sinkers.  Does he throw a sinker now?  I don't know.  His sinker is similar to his 4-seam fastball in terms of speed and direction of movement.  Were those sinkers just fastballs with a different movement?  Maybe.

Either way, his fastball has lost about 3 MPH.  Depending if those sinkers are misclassified fastball or not, his movement might be similar, or he's gained significant horizontal movement.


As I said, I'm ok with the Dodgers bringing Wilson back.  We just shouldn't expect him to be the 2009-2010 version or his 2013 results.

Ronaldo Belisario is Jim Johnson

Jim Johnson was traded tonight from the Baltimore Orioles to the Oakland A's for Jemile Weeks.  Johnson will make $10 million dollars this year.

Ronaldo Belisario might get non-tendered by the Dodgers because they don't want to pay him about $3 million.



But, they are the same guy - outside of 100+ SAVEZ for Johnson

Over the last 3 years
Belisario: 20% K's, 10% BB's, 63% Ground balls, 3.36 FIP, 3.46 xFIP, 3.16 SIERA, 3.88 TIPS
Johnson: 17% K's, 6% BB's, 61% Ground balls, 3.30 FIP, 3.47 xFIP, 3.07 SIERA, 3.92 TIPS
*source

And last season,

Johnson gave up 0 runs in 60 of his 74 outings
Belisario gave up 0 runs in 58 of his 77 outings

Johnson gave up 1 or 2 runs in 12 of his 74 outings
Belisario gave up 1 or 2 runs in 17 of his 77 outings

Johnson gave up 4 runs once and 5 runs once
Belisario gave up 4 runs once and 5 runs once

*Johnson's game log
*Belisario's game log

Imagination gone wild: What if Prince Fielder were a SS?

I was recently involved in an online discussion of the Prince Fielder/Ian Kinsler trade and the signing of Jhonny Peralta by the St. Louis Cardinals.  Someone stated that Peralta was no more than a utility infielder who could sometimes hit.  I pointed out that, over the last 3 seasons, Peralta was actually a top 5 SS.  Someone else stated that Prince, were he to play SS, would also be a top 5 SS.  I thought that was ridiculous, but decided I'd try to look at it as objectively as possible.


Over the last 3 seasons, Fielder has 111 batting runs, -18 base running runs, 61 replacement runs and -10 fielding and -37 positional runs for 107 total runs.
*source


If we assume that his batting, base running and overall playing time would stay the same, which is probably an optimistic assumption given the likely additional strain of playing SS instead of 1B, then we only need to adjust his positional and defensive runs.

The positional adjustment is the easiest to adjust.  The adjustment for 1B is -12.5 runs per 1350 innings, the adjustment for SS is +7.5 runs per  1350 innings.  Fielder's -37 positional runs represent (-37/-12.5) 3.0 defensive seasons.  Three defensive seasons at SS is worth (3 * 7.5) 23 runs.

At this point Fielder at SS is worth 111 batting runs+-18 base running runs+23 positional runs+61 replacement runs.  That's 167 runs all told.  That'd make him, by far, the best SS in the league.  Troy Tulowitzki has 114 runs.

But we still haven't factored in Fielder's defense compared to the average SS.  I'm not really sure that we can.

Fielder has been about 6 runs worse than the average 1B each season of his career.  But the average SS is a much better defensive player than the average 1B.

I think it's safe to assume that Fielder would be the worst defensive SS in baseball.

Since 2002, the UZR era, the worst season by a SS (minimum 650 innings, about half a season) is Dee Gordon's 2012 season in which UZR says he was worth -27 runs per 1350 innings.
*http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=650&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2011&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=25,a

That's a somewhat amusing comparison.  Dee Gordon is listed at 5'11" 160 lbs.  Prince is listed at 5'11" 275 lbs.  Those are listed weights and I think it's entirely possible that Prince weighs twice as much as Gordon.

http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?813284-Easiest-defensive-position-to-play-in-baseball/page6

http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/juice-marlins-beat-giants-bury-may-rays-win-121523585.html

I'm going to go out on a limb as say that Prince would be a worse defensive SS than Gordon.  I'd go so far as to say that he would be considerably worse.  But how much is considerably?


UZR can be broken down into different components.
Range runs - attempts to measure a player's range; how many balls he does/doesn't get to compared to average.
Error runs - attempts to measure how many runs a player saves/costs his team by avoiding/making errors
Double play runs - attempts to measure how many runs a player saves/costs his team by turning/not turning double plays.

I'm going to assume that Fielder would be the worst at all 3 of the above.  So, what would that look like for Fielder's overall defensive worth at SS?

It's worth noting here that most of Gordon's poor UZR was due to making errors, his range and double plays were bad, but not historically bad.  His errors were.

The worst SS in terms of double play runs (per 1350 innings) was, go figure, 2012 Dee Gordon at -5 runs per 1350 innings.  If we say that Fielder was equally as bad as Gordon, I've little doubt he'd be much worse than Gordon, that'd be (3*-5)-15 runs over the 3 seasons.

The worst SS in terms of range runs was, not surprisingly, 2012 Derek Jeter at -17.5 runs per 1350 innings.  Anyone think that Fielder has Jeter's range?  I don't.  But if we give Fielder 3 seasons as poor as Jeters' 2012 that's (3*-17.5) -53 runs for 3 seasons.

The worst SS in terms of error runs, bet you guessed that it, was 2012 Dee Gordon at -13 runs per 1350 innings.  Again, I think that Dee's footwork and hands around 2B would be much better than Fielder's, but if we say that Fielder was as good as Gordon then he'd be worth (3*-13) -39 runs per the 3 seasons.

If we add all of that up (and remembering that this is-I believe-an optimistic look at Fielder's possible performance at SS, we get Fielder being (-15-53-39) -107 runs worse than the average SS.  Quite a bit worse than Gordon's -27 runs

Let's add that to his other performance from above:
111 batting runs, -18 base running runs, -107 fielding runs, 23 positional runs, 61 replacement runs = 71 total runs.

71 total runs between 2011 and 2013 would have put Fielder 12th among major league SS, between Hanley Ramirez (84 runs) and Marco Scutaro (70 runs), and worth about 2.5 WAR per season.
*http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2013&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

To emphasize again, I think these are the most ridiculously optimistic assumptions that I can present with a straight face.  I think it much more likely that Fielder would be a -50 (per 1350 innings) or worse SS were he to play there everyday.  Not to mention the additional strain on his body that would decrease his hitting, baserunning, and ability to play everyday.

Trade Analysis: Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder

The first blockbuster of the 2013-2014 off season!

All the details aren't out yet but I'm going to look at the deal just a straight swap.

Per Clay Davenport transactions,

Ian Kinsler is expected to produce 81.6 runs over the next 3 seasons and will be paid $46 million to do so.  Assuming $5.5 million for 10 runs in 2014 and 5% inflation each year the value of Kinsler's production is worth $47 million.  We'll call that a wash.  Kinsler will be paid exactly for his expected production.

*http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/KINSLER19820622A.shtml

Prince Fielder is expected to produce 214.3 runs (assuming 20 runs in his final year - a 5 run drop from the previous season) over the rest of his contract and will be paid $168 million to so do.  With the same assumptions, the value of Fielder's production is $134 million.  That's substantially less than the $214 million that he'll be paid.

Right off this looks like a huge win for the Tigers.

But, let's look at the deal a little differently.  Let's just look at the next 3 seasons.

Kinsler's expectancy doesn't change.  He'll produce 82 runs for $46 million.

Prince is expected to produce 111 runs while being paid $72 million.  The value of that production in $64 million.  

Prince is expected to produce 30 more runs than Kinsler over the next 3 seasons.  That's significant.  He'll also be paid $26 million more to do it - that's also significant.   With that $26 million the Tigers should be able to buy ($26 million / ($5.5/10)) 45 more runs on the open market.  Possibly in the form of a 3rd baseman to replace Cabrera who'll move to 1st or to Max Scherzer who could have been traded.

What hasn't been considered so far, and what is very difficult to fully consider, are the other dominoes.  Now, Jurickson Profar will move into the Rangers' starting line up.

Profar is projected to produce 97 runs over the next 3 seasons.  That certainly mitigates the loss of Kinsler.  He'll be doing so at near the league minimum as well.   The Rangers will now have Mitch Moreland available for trade or to move to the OF.  That also adds to the value from the Rangers' end.

*http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/PROFAR19930220A.shtml

The Rangers might be a better team over the next few seasons with Fielder instead of Kinsler.  Still, unless major prospects or major money is changing hands, it's hard to see this as anything but a win for the Tigers.

UPDATE:  The Tigers will send $30 million to the Rangers to cover part of Fielder's salary.  Incidentally, that's exactly the amount that the above analysis indicated that Fielder was expected to be paid in excess of his production.  

2013 Free Agent Team - Review

Well, the 2013 season is over - except for the World Series.

But who cares about that, right?

What everyone really cares about is how my 2013 Free Agent Team did?

Last offseason I gave myself an imaginary $100 million with which to sign players to my imaginary team and see how they'd fare this season.

Here's a reminder of who I picked and how much I paid them.

*click to make bigger

I think I did pretty well estimating the contracts the players would sign for.  

 I offered a total of 25 contracts for a total of $98.7 million.  23 of those players actually signed, and for a total of $87.3 million.  A few players I wanted to sign did not sign.  I offered $6 million to Roy Oswalt  and minor league contracts to Kevin Millwood, Jamey Moyer and Dana Eveland.  Millwood retired and nobody else bit on Oswaly, Moyer or Eveland.  If they had signed for what I had offered my total contracts would have to $94 million.  Very close to the $98 million I projected.

So, how'd the team do?

*Click to make bigger

Not too well.  For my $100 million I only bought 10 Win Above Replacement.  With replacement level being at about 48 wins my team would have won in the neighborhood of 58 games.  Only the Astros won less games than that and their payroll was about a fifth of mine.  

So, where'd I go wrong?

Like 2012's team, my starting pitching didn't really perform.  Only 2 of my starters made anything like a full season's worth of starts and I didn't even have a 5th starter since none of Jamie Moyer, Kevin Milwood or Dana Eveland pitched in the bigs.  Roy Oswalt and Jeff Francis only managed about 100 innings between them.

The hitting wasn't much better.

Half of my non-pitchers performed below replacement level.

I whiffed really bad on Macir Izturis whose .236/.288/.310 line was 2 wins below replacement.  It looks worse when I considered Kelly Johnson who managed 1.2 WAR.

Jeff Keppinger wasn't much better.  He managed -1.5 WAR.

My starting SS, Alex Gonzalez, was an absolute disaster.  He cost the team 1.1 WAR.  Luckily he only got 118 PA's or it could have been worse.

Kevin Youkilis also only managed 118 trips to the plate.  He cost me another .4 WAR.  At least he cost the Yankees that as well.

Melky Cabrera disappointed me and the Toronto Blue Jays.  He was worth negative .9 WAR.

So what'd I do right?

The biggest win was my gamble on Francisco Liriano.  He had a great bounce back season worth 3.1 WAR. 

I also did very well with another Pirate, Russ Martin.  Martin helped the Pirates to the playoffs with his 4.1 WAR season.  He helped my team win more games than the Astros.  

My backup catcher, Humberto Quintero, was also solid.  He put up .6 WAR in limited duty.

Nick Swisher had an ok season worth 2.4 WAR.  Not nearly what I expected when I handed him $17 million this year - the biggest contract I gave out.

Angel Pagan gave me just over 1 win.  I should have went with Shane Victorino instead.

Eric Chavez peformed well in limited duty.  His .7 WAR helped.

My bullpen was ok.  They managed just under 2 WAR.  High dollar (for me) Matt Lindstrom was excellent - I don't know why teams underrate him so?  Jamey Wright and Chad Qualls were productive as well.

There it is.  A very mediocre use of $100 million (and a few hours as well).

I'm getting ready to start my 2014 team.  I hope I do better.  

New Dodger: Alexander Guerrero

The Dodgers recently (yesterday or today) threw their financial might around again.  This time they signed Cuban 2B/SS Alexander Guerrero.

*http://www.juventudrebelde.cu/multimedia/fotografia/49-serie-nacional-de-beisbol/alexander-guerrero/

I've never heard of the guy before so I don't know anything about him.  The internet has helped out and this is what I've been able to find:

His last 3 seasons in Cuba he hit something like .330/.410/.610 in 886 PA's with 60 home runs.

How's that compare to two recent Cuban players?
From 2010 to 2011 Yasiel Puig and Yoenis Cespedes hit
Puig: .330/.430/.581 with 17 HR
Cespedes: .333/.424/.667 with 33 HR

So, he's comparable to those guys.


How have Puig and Cespedes hit in the majors?
If you've stumbled upon this blog you've probably heard of Puig.  He went Babe Ruth for his first 150 PA's in the majors.  He's since cooled off.  Cespedes was excellent last season but has struggled in 2013.

All told Cespedes and Puig have hit .283/.343/.489 in 1057 major league PA's
*source

If he can play 2B or SS or 3B and hit like that then he's an All-Star.  The only infielder in the majors this year with a .340/.450 ish line is Manny Machado.
*source

I don't think we should expect Guerrero to be Manny Machado.


Another thing to note is that both Puig and Cespedes walked more than they struck out in Cuba.  They've struck out about 3 times as much as they've walked in the majors.  That indicates a serious difference in the talent levels of the pitchers that they are facing.


Guerrero signed for $32 million over 5 seasons.  Puig signed for $42 million for 7 seasons and Cespedes for $36 million over 4 seasons.

Guerrero's contract was the smallest of the three.  $10 million less than Puig received for the same length and about half as much per year than Cespedes'


So, what can we take away from this?  I have no idea really.  Guerrero put up similar offensive numbers to Cespedes and Puig in Cuba.  We're still trying to figure out exactly how those guys will hit in the majors though.

The scouts and the guys involved in the million dollar contracts don't seem to think that Guerrero is as good as Puig or Cespedes.

At about $5 million a year he doesn't have to be an All-Star.  He doesn't have to be an All-Star to be an upgrade to the Dodger infield.

I can't wait to wait and see.





Other Links used
http://www.mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2013/07/23/report-dodgers-sign-cuban-shortstop-alexander-guerrero-to-732m-deal/
http://www.chadmoriyama.com/2013/07/dodgers-sign-cuban-shortstop-alexander-guerrero-for-32-million-according-to-report-video/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cuban-of-yasiel-puig-declared-free-agent/

Why do we love no-hitters?

This isn't my idea and it's been brought to recent light by Brian Kenny.

https://twitter.com/MrBrianKenny/statuses/352416418056257536

Why fascination w/ no-hitter?Because in formative years of baseball, walks were considered a pitcher's responsibility, not a batter's skill

https://twitter.com/MrBrianKenny/statuses/352419081082773505

Yes, I'm saying it: No-hitters, hitting streaks - antiquated notions.  From a time where we are baseball values were misguided.

No-hitters are...?cool?...I enjoy them.  But what do they mean?
Nothing really

Lincecum pitched a no hitter yesterday, you may have heard.
9 innings, 0 hits, 0 runs, 4 walks, 1 hit batter, wild pitch, 13 K's, 148 pitches.

Though it'll be the game that goes down in history, I'm not sure it was the best game pitched yesterday.

Zack Greinke also pitched a pretty good game yesterday.
9 innings, 2 hits, 0 runs, 1 walk, 9 K's, 110 pitches.


Greinke allowed 2 less runners to reach base.  He needed 38 less pitches to retire 27 hitters than Lincecum did.  The two hits off Greinke were a loopy line drive to left-center and a bunt

Greinke allowed 20 balls in play.  14 of them were ground balls, 3 were classified as line drives, 1 was an infield fly ball.
Lincecum allowed 14 balls in play.  6 were ground balls, 6 were outfield fly balls, 2 were classified as line drives.


Lincecum pitched a great game.  Greinke probably pitched a bit better.


Lincecum's game will go down in history because Hunter Pence made this catch.


Johnny Vander Meer allowed 12 base runners in his back-to-back no-hitters.
Francisco Liriano walked 6 in his no-hitter
Joe Cowley gave up 6 walks and an earned run in a no-hit game.
AJ Burnett walked 9, hit a batter, threw a wild pitch and allowed 3 steals in his no-hitter.
Edwin Jackson also allowed 9 base runners, but none by hit.

There have been plenty of better pitched games than those above, but they aren't considered historic.