The latest Yakety Sax inducing play wasn't committed by a team, but a single player. The Rockies' Jonathan Herrera.
With the Dodgers leading the Rockies 8 - 6 in the top of the ninth inning and runners at the corners with 0 outs, LA had a Win Probability of 94.9%.
Dodgers' batter Tony Gwynn hit a sharp ground ball to the Rockies' 2nd baseman Jonathan Herrera, who had to make a quick decision on what to do.
It appears that he had 3 options:
The first option would have been to throw to the shortstop covering 2nd base and try for a double play. If Herrera had chosen this option and if the Rockies had completed the double play allowing Rod Barajas to score from 3rd the score would have been 9 - 6 with 2 outs leaving LA with a Win Probability of 93.5%. This play would have increased Colorado's Win Probability by 1.5%
The second option would have been to try to tag the runner going by and then turn the double play. By holding the ball Herrara may have been able to stop Barajas, the runner at 3rd, from scoring. If Herrera had chosen this option, and completed the play without the run scoring the Dodgers would have had 2 outs and a runner at third leaving LA with a Win Probability of 88.5%. This play would have increased Colorado's Win Probability by 6.4%.
It appears as though Barajas may have started home on contact, negating option two. However Herrera's 3rd option would have been to throw directly home and try to stop Barajas from scoring. If Herrera had chosen this option and if Barajas had been tagged out at home, LA would have had 1 out with runners on 1st and 2nd and a Win Probability of 91%. This play would have increased Colorado's Win Probability by 3.9%.
With the Dodgers leading the Rockies 8 - 6 in the top of the ninth inning and runners at the corners with 0 outs, LA had a Win Probability of 94.9%.
Dodgers' batter Tony Gwynn hit a sharp ground ball to the Rockies' 2nd baseman Jonathan Herrera, who had to make a quick decision on what to do.
It appears that he had 3 options:
The first option would have been to throw to the shortstop covering 2nd base and try for a double play. If Herrera had chosen this option and if the Rockies had completed the double play allowing Rod Barajas to score from 3rd the score would have been 9 - 6 with 2 outs leaving LA with a Win Probability of 93.5%. This play would have increased Colorado's Win Probability by 1.5%
The second option would have been to try to tag the runner going by and then turn the double play. By holding the ball Herrara may have been able to stop Barajas, the runner at 3rd, from scoring. If Herrera had chosen this option, and completed the play without the run scoring the Dodgers would have had 2 outs and a runner at third leaving LA with a Win Probability of 88.5%. This play would have increased Colorado's Win Probability by 6.4%.
It appears as though Barajas may have started home on contact, negating option two. However Herrera's 3rd option would have been to throw directly home and try to stop Barajas from scoring. If Herrera had chosen this option and if Barajas had been tagged out at home, LA would have had 1 out with runners on 1st and 2nd and a Win Probability of 91%. This play would have increased Colorado's Win Probability by 3.9%.
To see what Herrera chose to do, play this video.
While listening to this video.
Don't peek ahead.
It appears that Herrera didn't have any idea what to do. He looks like he began to throw home, then tried to tag the runner going by. However he missed the runner going to second, and his throw home was late. Everybody safe. This play gave the Dodgers a 96.7% Win Probability, decreasing Colorado's Win Probability by 3.2%.
Speaking of Win Probability, what a fun game this was...
*Win Probability stats from The Hardball Times
*Game graph from FanGraphs
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