Thursday, March 14, 2013

Carlos Gomez: Contract Analysis

With 3 year $24 million extension thru 2016 have committed 4 years and $28.3 million to Carlos Gomez over next 4 seasons.

The Brewers and Gomez reached an agreement on a 1-year deal in January of this year.  That deal was for $4.3 million in 2013.

A few months later they agreed to a $24 million 3-year extension.

Was it a good deal?

Gomez has been more of a part time player for the Crew than a starter in his career; averaging just about 400 PA's per season.

With the new contract and Nyjer Morgan heading to Japan for this season CF looks to belong to Gomez.

FanGraphs has 5 different projection systems available for most players.  These projections combine to project Gomez for a .303/.404 line worth 2.1 WAR in 450 PA's (2.8 WAR in 600 PA's).

Gomez hit .305/.463 last season so the projections don't like Gomez to retain his power despite the fact he's entering his age 27 season which is usually the beginning of a player's power peak (/alliteration).

Since players peak from about age 27 to age 31 this contract should cover Gomez' peak years and he should have minimal risk of decline over the life of the contract.

We should expect Gomez to put up 4 seasons of about 2.5 WAR.  The market value of 1 WAR is about $5.5 million currently.  If that value increases 5% annually then the value of Gomez' total WAR would be about $60 million.

The total value of Gomez' contract is $28.3 million.

The Brewers will be paying Gomez about half of what he is expected to produce.  Even if he fall off dramatically, he should be worth his contract.  

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