2013 Top 100 Pre-Season Prospects

Real baseball starts in less than a month.

Let's try that again...

Real baseball starts in less than a month!!!!!!!!!

That's more like it.

Anyway, spring and major league baseball are just around the corner.  I was going to try and work in a 'Hope springs eternal' thing here but, meh.

With a new season come new prospects.  Some will make their way to the majors.  Some will move up their organizational ladders.  Some will give their fans hope for the future.  Some will disappoint.

Various organizations and individuals have take to ranking these prospects.  I am not one of those organizations or individuals.  What I have done is looked over the rankings that other have made and entered them into a handy-dandy spreadsheet and applied a little bit of math to the rankings.

One thing I did, the most obvious thing to do, was to find the average ranking of players.  Here's the top 25 players by average ranking:

1) Jurickson Profar SS Texas
2) Oscar Taveras OF St. Louis
3) Dylan Bundy P Baltimore
4) Wil Myers OF Tampa
5) Gerrit Cole P Pittsburgh
6) Jose Fernandez P Miami
7) Zack Wheeler P New York Mets
8) Xander Bogarts SS Boston
9) Taijuan Walker P Atlanta
10) Tyler Skaggs P Arizona
11) Christian Yelich OF Miami
12) Travis D'Arnaud C New York Mets
13) Miguel Sano 3B Minnesota
14) Byron Buxton OF Minnesota
15) Jameson Taillon P Pittsburgh
16) Francisco Lindor SS Cleveland
17) Shelby Miller P St. Louis
18) Mike Zunino C Seattle
19) Javier Baez SS Chicago Cubs
20) Billy Hamilton OF/SS Cincinnati
21) Trevor Bauer P Cleveland
22) Kevin Gausman P Baltimore
23) Carlos Correa SS Houston
24) Archie Bradley P Arizona
25) Nick Castellanos 3B Detroit

All 5 organizations/individuals rated Profar as the #1 prospect.  There were near consensuses on Oscar Taveras and Dylan Bundy as well with both getting no lower than a #4 vote.  Wil Myers was 4th in 4 of the 5 rankings.

The least agreed upon player was Colorado SS Trevor Story who was ranked as high as #34 and as low as #99.


Sources
Baseball America
Baseball Prospectus
FanGraphs
Keith Law
Jonathan Mayo

Dream of the Day: Flipping Out

I was at a performance of some sort.  One act had just finished and we were waiting for the next to begin.  A young black girl appeared on the stage.  On older black man appeared on the stage.  He had gold teeth and a black curly beard.  I immediately thought that he seemed skechy.  The girl was at one side of the stage, and the man at the other.  She ran towards him and he lowered his hands for her to step into.  He launched her into the air.  Immediately I was aware that something was wrong.  She was supposed to go straight up but she was going backwards.  I heard people around me screaming.  She landed with her back hitting the corner of the stage.  I looked away and wanted to run away but knew I had to help since I had medical training.  I shouted for someone to call 911.  I knew that wasn’t what I had learned.  I acknowledged individuals and had them dial 911.  I ran to the girl.  She was on the floor below the stage with her face away from me.  I knelt beside her and touched her arm.  She turned to look at me.  “You’re going to be ok,” I said.  She had minimal reaction.  She started to roll over.  I tried to tell her not to because I was concerned about her spine.  She continued to roll, people might have been assisting her in rolling.  I tried again to get her to stop.

Trade Review: Paul Konerko for Jeff Shaw

One trade that always bothered me was the Paul Konerko for Jeff Shaw trade in 1998.  Trading a cost-controlled slugging first baseman for a reliever is rarely a good idea.

How'd the trade work out when viewed through the WAR lens?

1998: Karros 2.6, Shaw -0.2, Konerko -0.3
1999: Karros 5.2, Shaw 0.9, Konerko 2.0
2000: Karros 1.8, Shaw 0.3, Konerko 1.7
2001: Karros -0.1, Shaw 0.3, Konerko 2.4
2002: Karros 1.7, Shaw (retired), Konerko 2.2

From 1998 to 2002 Karros and Shaw produced 12.5 combined WAR for the Dodgers while Konerko produced 8 WAR for the White Sox.

Dodgers win the trade? right?  They ended up with 4 more wins.

Well, there's also the issue of salary.
From 1998 to 2002 Karros and Shaw earned a combined $44.9 million.
From 1998 to 2002 Konerko earned $6.8 million.

If LA hadn't made the trade they would have had an extra $38 million with which to try and buy 4 more wins.  I think they may have been able to achieve that.


An interesting thing to look at is just how similar Konerko and Karros were during that period (1998-2002):
Karros: 823 Games, 3289 PA, 128 HR, 481 RBI, .274/.334/.457 for a 108 wRC+
Konerko: 802 Games, 3164 PA, 129 HR, 475 RBI, .279/.342/.471 for a 108 wRC+

Hard to get more identical than that.

However, Konerko was more of a DH than 1B man.  Karros accounted for 17 defensive runs saved while Konerko was at -8.  That leaves total WAR at that time at 11.2 for Karros and 7.6 for Konerko.

Still, that's a trade I'd like to have back.

*Karros, Konerko and Shaw data from FanGraphs.
*Salary data from Baseball-Reference player pages

Dream of the Day: Komodo Dragons

I was lying in my mother’s front yard.  There was a woman, unidentified, laying on my back.  I was somewhere between awake and asleep.  I saw my mom and my nephew, Alex, walking towards the house.  I was somewhat, mentally, uncomfortable having my mom see this person lying on top of me.  I jumped up. 

I greeted my mother and nephew.  She wondered if we had seen the Komodo dragon.  I asked what she was talking about.  She said that she had seen a Komodo dragon in the yard.  I started looking around for it. 

Found it not much later.   It was not that big.  Maybe two feet long.  I picked up Alex to show him.  While we were looking at it, it started to move toward us.  I backed up to let it pass but it followed.  As I was cautiously avoiding it, I almost stumbled over another one lying in the weeds. 

It became obvious that the Komodo dragon was not just following us, but following us with ill intent.  I wanted to kick it, but was hesitant to do so both because of the rarity of Komodo dragons and because I didn’t want to make it mad.  

2013 Free Agent Team

Last year I challenged myself to build a team of free agents with a budget of $100 million.  I hoped the team would be around .500 (based on WAR).  The results were not as good as I had hoped.   If at first you do not succeed, and all that.

I would have done this again even if I'd build a 100 win team.  It's challenging, fun, and forces me to look at a lot of players that I wouldn't ordinarily look at.

After wasting a lot of time doing copious amounts of research this is the team that I've decided on

Catcher
Again, there weren't a lot of options on the market.  Russ Martin, AJ Pierzynski and Mike Napoli were the only guys I really considered.  As a Dodger fan, Rod Barajas wasn't that attractive and no one else looks like a full time starter.  Pierzynski is coming off of a huge season which I thought might over inflate his price - so I didn't pick him.  Napoli is only kind of a catcher.  I thought about taking him as a C/1B player, but that would necessitate spending more on a back up catcher.  So I chose Martin.  Though he's not near the player he was early in his career with the Dodgers he still gets on base and provides solid defense while playing full time.  He should sign a contract somewhere around 2 years and $15 million.

For my backup I'm taking Humberto Quintero on a minor league deal.  Why?  I think he'll sign a minor league deal and get into some games for some team.   Hard to ask for more than that from a backup catcher.


First base
Again, not much on the market.  Carloses Pena and Lee were cheap considerations, but are just as likely to be in the crapper as to be productive players.  Adam LaRoche is coming off of a good year, but his history is inconsistent and I'm afraid the Nationals are going to make him a ridiculous offer which would have forced me to explain why I 'low-balled' him.  Mike Napoli appears here again, but I went with Kevin Youkilis.  He's in the decline part of his career, but showed in the 2nd half of 2012 that he can still provide with the bat.  He can also play 3rd, which might come in handy later.  The White Sox declined a $13 million option on him, so I think that something in the area of 2 years and $19 million should get him.

Second base
One of the tougher decisions with a slew of uninteresting options to choose from (Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot, I'm looking at you).  More interesting was Kelly Johnson - I almost took him with a 2 year $12 million offer.  Maybe I should have.  I instead went with Macier Izturis.  Izturis has been a super back up for the Anaheim Angels for the last 8 years playing 2nd, 3rd, and SS while being something like a major league average bat (wRC+ of 94).  He might not really be a full time player but on a 2 year $8 million contract, I couldn't refuse.

Third base
Blech!  I almost with with the two guys above (Youkilis and Izturis) here.  Mark Reynolds also merited some consideration, but I couldn't get too excited about that.  Placido Polanco?  Mark Wiggenton?  Pass.  Instead I went with Eric Chavez.  He had an excellent part-time season with the Yankees last year, and it's likely he'll do the same in 2013 (play part time...I hope (for purposes of this exercise only (I'm no Yankee fan)) not necessarily play excellently).  For $5 million over 1 season he could be a bargain.

Shortstop
More infield disaster.  Marco Scutaro and Stephen Drew are the two best players.  I couldn't find a way to work either into my budget.  I almost put Macier Izturis here, but he's not really a SS and then who would play 2nd?  Jason Bartlett almost made the team, but I wasn't sure he'd get a gig in 2013.  So I went with another guy who might not play (Brilliant!) - Alex Gonzalez.  Gonzalez was the booby prize for Milwaukee last year after the missed out on Clint Barmes.  Gonzalez is ok at short.  Typically, good enough defense and just enough bat to make him useful.  1 year and $4 million.

Infield
I'm certainly not thrilled with my starters, so I had to be a bit more aggressive with the backups.
Jeff Keppinger.  Keppinger had an excellent season with the Rays in 2012 hitting .367/.439 which was 28% better than the average hitter.  The Rays were able to limit his at bats vs righties.  Something my hypothetical team will try to do by platooning him with Eric Chavez at 3rd.  He's not terrible vs righties so he can play some 2nd and 1st as well if needed.  Keppinger made $1.7 million last year.  I'm hoping doubling that to $3.5 million and 2 years will get him.
I also went with Kensuke Tanaka of the NBP.  Tanaka is a 32 year old 2Bman who has played for the Nipoon Ham Fighters (Nipoon Ham is the city, Fighters is the nickname).   He doesn't have much of a bat, but is said to be an excellent defender.  He projects to be a fringe MLB starter or a backup.  Exactly what I need.  I'll offer him $800 K to play in the (fake) MLB.

Left field
It's a good season to need outfielders.  Lots of excellent players in free agency.  Josh Hamilton, Justin Upton, Michael Bourn, Torii Hunter, Ichiro! even Ssory Doc.  I didn't sign any of those guys.  To play left I went with...Melky Cabrera.  Melky was having a superb season last year before getting nailed for violating the MLB's drug policy.  My team is going to have to take some risks, so getting Melky on a 1 year $6.5 million deal while he tries to rebuild his image and value could pay off handsomely.

Center field
A lot of debate here.  Spend big on Hamilton?  Upton or Bourn?  Thought long and hard about all of those guys.  I really wanted Bourn.  Again, I was afraid a team might blow up the market for him.  Same for Justin Upton.  That left me debating between Shane Victorino and Angel Pagan.  I went with Pagan for 3 years and $36 million.

Right field
Hunter Pence to complete the SF Giants OF.

No.   Not a lot of offense on this team so I went with a guy who hit .219 in 2008.  That was 5 years ago.  Now he's a guy who gets on base (.36% of the time in his career) and has some power (20+ home runs for 8 consecutive years).  That guy?  Nick Swisher.  One of the more underrated offensive players in the game.  He's also an excellent defender.  He's said to be asking for Jayson Werth money ($126 million).  He's not getting that.  I'm offering $102 million over 6 seasons.

Backup Outfielders
Last year I went with DeWayne Wise.  He's a solid defensive player and defense comes cheap.  I'm going to try him again.  For minimal cost he should provide some value.  For my other outfielder, I'm going with the opposite of Wise.  Eric Hinske.  He was terrible last year but Hinske has been a league average hitter for his career and a bit better than that vs right-handers.  For the league minimum I'm betting on a comeback from him.


Starting Pitchers
Starting pitching is where I really missed last year.  My 5 starters and $35 million accounted for 3 WAR.

Over half of that WAR was provided by Jeff Francis.  I'm going to go that route again.  Last year I bid $6 million for him and he signed a minor league contract.  This year I'm reducing my offer to 1 year and $2 million.

Last season I gambled on a couple of injured pitchers Erik Bedard and Rich Harden.  For $10 million they gave me just over 1 WAR.  I lost the gamble, but I'm going to that well again too.  This time I'm giving Roy Oswalt a 1 year $6 million contract.  He was terrible coming back from injury last season, but BABIP and HR/FB were what killed him and those are two of the least stable indicators.  I think there is some value to be had.  The velocity and movement on his pitches in similar to what he had in 2011.

Another high-reward pitcher is Francisco Liriano.  He's teased us with two incredible seasons in 2006 and 2010 surrounded by a bunch of below average seasons.  Maybe, just maybe, he's got another one of those seasons in him.  For 2 years and $14 million I'll find out.

With two gambles I need something a bit more stable.  Jeremy Guthrie has consistently been a 2 - 2.5 WAR pitcher over the past 6 seasons.  He was a wreck in Colorado, but that was totally to be expected.    He was much better after he moved to Kansas City.  I think he's a bit under the radar (though he apparently asked for 3 years $35 million) and I think I can get him for something like 2 years and $15 million.

One more spot in the rotation.  I'm inviting Jamie Moyer, Dana Eveland and Kevin Millwood to camp on minor league deals.  Millwood has the most chance of providing innings for a major league team next season.  Jamie Moyer was terrible for the Rockies last year, but that was (like with Guthrie) totally the wrong situation for him.  I think there's something left in the tank.  His underlying numbers weren't bad.  Dana Eveland might get a chance in a major league rotation, he might also find bullpen work.  I'd be happy with him as either.

Bullpen
Last year I went on the cheap and got what I paid for.  7 minor league contracts netted me .2 WAR.  Luis Ayala was very good providing me .8 WAR.  Nobody else was good.  I'm trying a similar strategy again though.

I am going to give Matt Lindstrom 1 year and $2.5 million.  He was recently let go by the DBacks despite the fact that he was coming off of a strong season .

I'm also going to give Jamey Wright $850 thousand dollars.  He had a very good season with LA last year.  He doesn't strike anyone out, but he gets a ton of ground balls.   That's useful.

Beyond that, I'm throwing spaghetti at the wall and taking what sticks.

I listed 6 right-handed relievers and 5 left-handed relievers in descending order of how I want them.  If they sign for the minimum (or close to it) I'll take them.   Two righties, two lefties and the next best guy.

I'd just like to point out the Joey Divine has excellent stuff and success in the majors, it's only injury that has held him back.


There you have it, my $100 million team of cast-offs.  Wish me luck

Hitter vs Pitcher matchups don't mean a thing. 2012 Playoff version

About a year ago I wrote this post in which I referred to the work of other smarter and better writers on the topic of hitter vs pitcher match ups.   They, and I, concluded that past performance of a specific hitter facing a specific pitcher doesn't predict future performance.

Still, plenty of baseball "experts" cited past hitter/pitcher matchups during the 2012 playoffs.  I recorded as many of these as a I found on Twitter (I did not record the statements made on air, since I'd have no linkable proof that the statements were made) and tracked the outcomes during the playoffs.

Here are the statements for hitters who had had success against the pitchers they were facing:

https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/255405529772478466

Meanwhile, Werth, Harper, Morse, Desmond & Espinosa are a combined 17 for 43 (.395) lifetime vs. Jaime Garcia.

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/254324770135498752

Combined batting average of #Braves' position players on today's roster against#STLCards' Lohse: .331. Chipper 6-13, HR. Prado 6-14.

https://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/257276697332813825

Delmon Young, who leads off 2nd inning for#tigers, is a career 11-for-19 (.579) against Andy Pettitte. #yankees

The hitters mentioned by name combined to hit .500 (23 for 46) against the named pitchers.  How'd they do in the playoffs?

2 for 14.  That's a .149 batting average.  

Hitter vs Pitcher past performance DOES NOT predict future performance.  

2012 Free Agent Team - Review

Back in November I gave myself an imaginary $100 million and challenged myself to construct a team from free agent players.

Here's the team that I picked

You can read about my reasoning here.

Now that the season is over it's time to see how I did.

First, we need to see how well I read the market.  Did I offer contracts anywhere close to what the players actually received?

I don't think that I did too badly.  I estimated the players to sign for a total of $97 million for 2012 and they actually signed for $71 million.  I over paid by $28 million.

My biggest mistakes:
Offering both Jason Marquis and Joel Piniero 2 year $15 million contacts.  Both signed minor league deals.
Offering Jeff Francis $6 million.  He signed a minor league deal that paid him $1.5 million for playing in the majors.
Offering Rich Harden $4 million.  He was injured and did not sign a contract for 2012.
Offering Ramon Hernandez $11 million for 2 years.  He signed for closer to half of that.

Other than those mistakes I was pretty spot on.  And, in defense of my misses on Marquis, Piniero and Harden, there were medical issues of which I don't have nearly the access to information that actual GM's do.

There's also my 6 year $140 million offer to Prince Fielder.  I offered Prince the kingly sum of $23 million per year.  He signed for $23.5 million per year, but for 9 years.  About $70 million more than I offered.  I wouldn't have gotten him.

Now, how'd the players that I wanted to sign actually perform?

Not that well.  Using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) my team would have won about 70 games.

Where'd I go wrong?  The pitching staff.  None of the pitchers that I gambled on worked out.  I expected Harden to give 1.5 - 3 (or more) WAR.  He didn't throw a pitch, neither did Joel Piniero.   Eric Bedard threw a few pitches, but I was hoping for more than 1.3 WAR.  Marquis survived most of the season, but wasn't productive.  Only Jeff Francis pitched well.  Then, Doug Davis.  He didn't get to the bigs this year, but his minor league numbers indicate that he wouldn't have been a disaster if he had.

Battery mate Ramon Hernandez didn't live up to expectations either.  From 2009 - 2011 he hit .372/.368 (OBP/SLG) which was a league average hitter.  In 2012 he only managed .247/.353 which was less than half as productive as an average hitter.

I had felt terrific about getting Matt Antonelli.  The Orioles had signed him to a major league contract.  A player I'd long thought deserved a big league chance was about to get it.  Didn't work out and Antonelli's career looks finished.

Max Ramirez and Esteban German didn't play in the bigs this year.  Ramirez hit .374/.474 in AAA and German hit .344/.345 in Japan indicating they had something left in the tank.


Who worked out?
The outfield performed well - DeJesus, Crisp and Willingham combined for almost 9 wins and 4th outfielder, Dwayne Wise, was his normal underrated self providing value with his glove.

With Antonelli giving nothing, having Hairston at 2B (at least until he got injured) would have helped soften the blow.

Prince Fielder did exactly what one would expect Prince Fielder to do.

Luis Ayala provided excellent value on a minor league contract.



So my $100 million team wasn't very good.  That should be somewhat expected considering that it was made up entirely of players who's teams decided that they weren't worth the contract that they were expected to sign (or they couldn't afford that contract).

Another crop of free agents are about to be let loose.  I'll see if my next incarnation does better