Day Planners: November 9th

1999
Had a couple of classes at UNM
Was going to go to the gym and work on my arms
Needed to work on a 'newsbrief'.  Probably something for school
And I was going to study for "303".  And I was going to do it "outside".
Notes for this week included something about "Mug Girl"


2000
Headed to the gym in the morning with this note "last day to relax"
Then Class.  
At lunch I needed to print something for 426 (Advanced problems in financial management)
Still needed to change the wiper blades
And I planned on taking a bubble bath


2001
Work from 8:30 to 6:00.  Headed to the gym at lunch to work out my legs
Then a Lobo basketball game
And "Tommy" at 8:00
EDIT:  Thanks to my bro who reminded me that was the musical of The Who's Tommy.




2004
Doing cardio at the gym before work
Had a new client intake that day.  I remember her.  She was a sweet girl.
After work I needed to come home and vacuum.  
After vacuuming I had to pack for a trip to California!  :0)
Somehow I still thought I'd have time to go to another Lobo game


2008
Had to write an email to the guy I was renting an apartment from about borrowing his bicycle and the electric bill
I also needed a shave


2009
Get up and go to the gym.  Working out "Arms".  6 times left on the 10 times card
Svenskundervisning För Invandrare (Swedish For Immigrants).  My Swedish class
Then grocery shopping on the way home
That night I had something to do with "library books"
I also had to email Nina about the movie "Kvinan som lekte med elden".  Nina was one of my SFI instructors and we were supposed to write emails to her about Swedish TV shows or movies that we saw.
I was also going to watch Silent Library and tell my girlfriend that she was a 'Plughäst' - Swedish for 'work horse' since she had been working so hard on her PhD and I just learned that word in class.  

Player Review/Prediction: Nate McLouth

Nate McLouth entered 2010 coming off of two productive seasons.  One with the Pirates worth 4.6 WAR and a 3.0 WAR season split between Pittsburgh and Atlanta.  So, when he finished 2010 with a negative WAR value plenty of people were surprised.  Should we have been?

Well, yes. 

There wasn’t anything in McLouth’s 2008 and 2009 which raised any red flags for this kind of drop off.  So what happened?  Let’s look at some graphs to see if there are any trends that might point out the problem.

Walk rate looks ok

Strike out rate is definitely increasing.  But it isn’t so high as to suggest that McLouth would be one of the worst batters in baseball.

Batted ball profile isn't changing that much.  Line drive rate is decreasing.  That's not a good sign.

BABIP…dropped off of the table.  We have a lead.

Also a steady drop in power over the last two years.

So, what is going on?

Let’s look at the strikeouts first. 

At Fangraphs we can get an in depth look at McLouth’s swing habits. 

McLouth isn't swinging at more pitches out of the zone than normal: 21.2% in 2010, 21.3% career
McLouth isn't swinging more than normal: 40% in 2010, 40.3% career.
McLouth isn't making less contact than normal: 86.8% in 2010, 85.7% career.
Pitchers are throwing McLouth fewer strikes: 46.9% strikes in 2010, 50.5% career.

There’s nothing in his swinging that would indicate more strikeouts.  Must be something in his non-swinging.


http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mclouna01-bat.shtml#batting_pitches::none

Prior to 2010 McLouth saw 3.90 pitches per at bat.  A patient hitter since league average is 3.78.  In 2010 McLouth saw 4.15 pitches per at bat. 

One downfall of being a patient hitter is that by taking more pitches you have the opportunity to take more 3^rd strikes.  The league average for strikeouts looking (compared to total strikeouts) is around 25%.   McLouth strikes out looking over 30% of the time prior to 2010, and in 2010?   44% of his strikeouts were the umpire’s decision.  What does that mean for McLouth?  I don’t know?  Did he lose his batting eye?  Not likely since all of his swing rates were the same.  He wasn’t swinging at bad pitches, why would he take good ones?  Were all the umpires out to get him, ringing him up on anything close?  Also doubtful. 

McLouth did suffer a concussion on June 9^th after colliding with Jason Heyward.  A concussion is unlikely to help his season at all, but McLouth had already struck out in 22% of his plate appearances prior to the concussion (compared to 13% after.  Maybe it did help). 

Moving on to BABIP…

McLouth’s .221 BABIP would have been the 2^nd worst in baseball had he enough at bats to qualify.  So, that jumps out.  McLouth doesn’t have any history of poor BABIP’s, so what happened?

BABIP on flyballs: .149 (.140 MLB Average, .145 career average)

BABIP on groundballs: .149 (.240 MLB Average, .218 career average)

BABIP on line drives: .586 (.750 MLB Average, .680 career average)

In 2010 McLouth’s Batting Average/On Base Percentage/Slugging line was:

.190/.298/.322 – ugly

By changing McLouth’s 2010 BABIP to MLB averages we get:

.236/.328/.369

If we use his career averages (which include his poor 2010) instead we get:

.223/.316/.355

Neither of those lines are good, but they aren’t nearly as ugly.

What about McLouth’s power?

ISO, or Isolated Power measures a players power using the formula ISO = (2B + (3B*2) + (HR*3)) / AB

McLouth had ISO’s above .200 his two years in Pittsburgh.  In Atlanta his ISO has been about .155.  The first thing to look at is if the change in stadium could be making a difference.  We do this by using park factors 

PNC Park in Pittsburgh has the following Park Factors for left-handed batters:

2B = 98

3B = 83

HR = 99

wOBA = 100

Turner Field in Atlanta has the following:

2B = 90

3B = 102

HR = 95

wOBA = 97

So, Atlanta is a bit tougher on left-handed hitters than Pittsburgh is but probably not enough to account for all the difference. 

Part of the problem is obvious.  His decreasing flyball and linedrive rates will lead to less power.  Flyballs become home runs, and linedrives become doubles and triples.  Hitting less flyballs and linedrives will lead to less extra base hits. 

So, what to make of this mess?  I think ‘mess’ is the right word.  ‘Mess’ certainly describes McLouth’s 2010.  ‘Mess’ also describes how I feel about this post.  It’s not nearly as organized as I’d like, nor are the answers as cut and dry.  I think McLouth’s BABIP will come back.  His numbers, especially on line drives are just too low to be sustainable. 

The changes in strikeouts and power are a different story.  I don’t know what to make of his increase in called third strikes?  Did he change his approach at the plate?  Does it have something to do with his new contacts?  I don’t know

I think the drop in power is more real.  He’s hitting less line drives and fly balls in a stadium that’s a bit rough on lefties. 

So, what’s my prediction?  McClouth comes back in 2011.  He’s not as bad of a player as his 2010 showed.  However, I’m going to be conservative.  The strikeouts and lack of line drives worry me.  I’ll pessimistically say:

.240/.330/.400 in 2011 for McLouth.


With the caveat that there is a much better chance that he returns to being the exact same player he was in 2008 and 2009 than there is that he repeats 2010.  

Day Planners: November 7th

1999: I was apparently meeting Jessi.
2000: Busy day
Gym in the morning.  Then a shower
Then banking class where we had a test.  There is a not that says 'Michelle'.  Dunno who that is
After the test I was heading to the library to research Rorschach ink blots.  That would eventually become one of my tattoos.
Then to work where I must have had a paycheck waiting for me.  Ca-Ching!
I also had a side note to buy new wiper blades
2001: Volunteering in the emergency room from 8:30 to 2:00
2004: Headed to Johnson field at UNM to do some jog/sprints before mowing the lawn and watching the Eagles and Steelers.  The game didn't go so well.
2008:  In Sweden.  Up early to head to the Skateverket (Tax Office) to get my Personnummer, Personbevis, and ID Card.
2009:  Absolutely nothing

Creation and Eternity

"Neither acting nor retracting, I bear tension and paradox, in an in-between state - the place between God's and Adam's fingers in Michelangelo's depiction of creation. " -- Veronica Goodchild

When I read those words I literally shook.  I was shocked, stunned, in awe.  It was the greatest thing I've ever read.  It conjured no emotion, nor defensiveness, nor thought in me.  For a fleeting eternity, that was my reality.  In a flash of three-dimensional blue I was there, suspended, between two fingers.  The fingers neither great, nor me small, but I, and the total of my existence, lived in that space.

A time line in old day planners

I was doing some cleaning and found a bunch of my old day planners dating back from 1999.

The 1999 version (bottom left) was from Sports Illustrated.  It was the first day planner that I used that I ever remembered to look at every day :0)

Because my life is utterly fascinating to everyone in existence I'm going to give everyone who reads this a glimpse into how I live my day to day life.

What was I doing on November 5th:
1999: I was living in Albuquerque and apparently working at a sandwich shop from 3 - 8 with someone named Steph(anie?).
2000: Still in Albuquerque.  Going to my cousins soccer game in the morning then coming home to do laundry and work on home work for a Banking course at UNM
2001:  Albuquerque.  Working for the army surplus store before my EMT class.  I also have a note that says "*Escort Girl* I have no idea what that means.  I'm fairly confident that I didn't hire an escort on that day....
2004:  Albuquerque.  Working in the office.  I went to the gym to swim laps on my lunch break.
2008:  Living in Solna Sweden.  I had a library book due.  I don't remember which one
2009:  Living in Upplands Vasby Sweden.  Went to the gym and had 7 visits remaining on my 20 times card.

Clearly November 5th hasn't been the most exciting day in my history.  Perhaps today will change that trend...

Player Review/Prediction: Clay Buchholz

This time I’m going to take a look at a pitcher.  Boston’s Clay Buchholz burst on the scene by throwing a no-hitter in his second career start.  Boston fans must have been drooling after the Sox won their second World Series in 4 years and teammate and fellow prospect Jon Lester pitched a no-hitter in the beginning of the 2008 season.  Since then Lester has gone on to become one of the more dominant pitchers in baseball while Buchholz has struggled in the major leagues and spent significant time in the minors.  Until this year.

Buchholz finished 2^nd in the AL in era with a 2.33 ERA and went 17 – 7.  Meanwhile Lester finished 19 – 9 with a 3.25 ERA.  The future for the Red Sox couldn’t be much brighter could it?  Lester is a Cy Young candidate and Buchholz just keeps getting better and better.  Look at these ERA’s.

2008: 6.75

2009: 4.25

2010: 2.33

If Buchholz is dropping 2 points off his ERA each season we should expect his ERA to be below 1.00 next year right?  Well, maybe not, but it should be in the 2.00’s right?  I’m going to tell you that it’s much more likely to be near 4.00.

Let’s take a look at some other stats:

Walks per 9, Strikeouts per 9, Home runs per 9, BABIP, and Left on Base Percent

2008: 4.86, 8.53, 1.30, .366, 60.5%

2009: 3.53, 6.65, 1.27, .289, 76.7%

2010: 3.47, 6.22, 0.47, .265, 79.0%

The first number that I want to focus on is Left on Base Percentage.  LOB% is the percentage of runners the pitcher strands on base.  The league average LOB% is around 72%.  In 2009 and 2010 Buchholz had higher than average LOB%’s but numbers that are somewhat reasonable.  In 2008 he stranded only 60.5%.  That means almost 40% of the runners that got on base against him scored.  That’s an unreasonable amount.  That low strand rate led to an inflated ERA.  So, the improvement between 2008 and 2009 wasn’t as significant as it first looks. 

Second, BABIP.  League average BABIP is about .295.  In 2008, Buchholz had a very high BABIP; lots of balls that should turn into outs were turning into hits instead.  Those extra hits lead to more runners, more runs and the low LOB%.  Again, his 2008 wasn’t as bad as it looked, and his 2009 wasn’t as much better than his 2008 as it looked. 

So, we’ve established that Buchholz’ 2008 was unlucky.  Now, let’s take a look at his 2010 compared to his 2009.  Two of the most important indicators of a pitcher’s ability are walk and strikeout rate.  Buchholz’ rates the last two years were very close to league average as these graphs will show

Guys with average walk and strikeout rates don’t usually post ERA’s nearly half the league average so why did Buchholz?  Let’s revisit BABIP and LOB%.  Both numbers were a bit on the ‘lucky’ side for Buchholz in 2010 which we’d expect to lead to a slightly reduced ERA.  But the number that really stands out is the homeruns per 9.  It is much lower this year than Buchholz’ first 2 years in the league.  So, the question of the moment is if Buchholz can expect to keep that number low.

The first thing that we will compare it to is the league average.  Buchholz was average on walk and strikeout rate how does his ability to control homeruns stack up?

The average number of homeruns per 9 is about 1.  Buchholz was a bit above average in 2008 and 2009 but way below in 2010. 

Now, certain pitchers can maintain a low HR per 9 rate.  Is Buchholz one of those pitchers?  The easiest way to avoid giving up homeruns is to keep the ball on the ground.  Buchholz does a very good job of keeping the ball on the ground.

*ground ball

*fly ball

*line drive

Buchholz had the 9^th highest groundball rate of all AL starters.  So, he should be expected to have a low home run rate.  But that low?  We can also look at the number of home runs per fly ball. 

2008: 14.7

2009: 15.7

2010: 05.6

Buchholz’ 5.6% HR/FB rate in 2010 was the 2^nd lowest amongst AL starters.  Unless Buchholz has some special ability to keep fly balls in the stadium we’d expect his HR/FB rate to increase next year.  Since his HR/FB rates in 2008 and 2009 don’t show this ability I see no reason to expect it to continue. 

What happens when we put it all together?  We get a guy who has average stuff (as evidenced by his strike out rate) and a guy who has average control (as evidenced by his walk rate).  This would lead me to believe we’ll get a guy with an average ERA.  The American League ERA was 4.14 last year.  Buchholz does keep the ball on the ground, which should limit the number of homeruns that he gives up, in turn reducing the number of runs he’ll give up.   

My prediction: Buchholz’ ERA between 3.50 and 4.50

Fashion Paradox: Looking like a Million Bucks

Five years ago, give or take maybe two years,  I bought two pairs of Canyon River Blues Cargo Pants from ?Sears?.  I paid $5 each for them.  In my opinion any pair of pants that cost a dollar a year to use is an impressive purchase.  I often brag about these pants.

Now...they are starting to show a little wear.  The cuffs are frayed.  Each of the multitude of pockets are frayed.  The colors have faded.  They're a little baggy as I bought them around the height of my out-of-shapeness.  But they cover everything that they need to cover and keep me warm when it's too cold for shorts.

I had a girlfriend who said that I looked homeless when I wore them.  My mom recently said that I need to buy some new pants because these looked like I paid $5 for them 5 years ago-she didn't mean it as a compliment.

So, I was looking at my pants today and thinking-thinking how backwards the thinking about my pants is.

If I spent a lot of money to buy a 'nice' pair of pants I'd have less money in my (figurative) pocket right now.  But since I paid less money then, I have more money now.  But people say that I look poor...

I often think that people are thinking exactly opposite of the way they should-this is one of those times.