Yakety Sax: Jonathan Herrera (6/11/11)

The latest Yakety Sax inducing play wasn't committed by a team, but a single player.  The Rockies' Jonathan Herrera.

With the Dodgers leading the Rockies 8 - 6 in the top of the ninth inning and runners at the corners with 0 outs, LA had a Win Probability of 94.9%.

Dodgers' batter Tony Gwynn hit a sharp ground ball to the Rockies' 2nd baseman Jonathan Herrera, who had to make a quick decision on what to do.

It appears that he had 3 options:

The first option would have been to throw to the shortstop covering 2nd base and try for a double play.  If Herrera had chosen this option and if the Rockies had completed the double play allowing Rod Barajas to score from 3rd the score would have been 9 - 6 with 2 outs leaving LA with a Win Probability of 93.5%.  This play would have increased Colorado's Win Probability by 1.5%

The second option would have been to try to tag the runner going by and then turn the double play.  By holding the ball Herrara may have been able to stop Barajas, the runner at 3rd, from scoring.  If Herrera had chosen this option, and completed the play without the run scoring the Dodgers would have had 2 outs and a runner at third leaving LA with a Win Probability of 88.5%.  This play would have increased Colorado's Win Probability by 6.4%.

It appears as though Barajas may have started home on contact, negating option two.  However Herrera's 3rd option would have been to throw directly home and try to stop Barajas from scoring.  If Herrera had chosen this option and if Barajas had been tagged out at home, LA would have had 1 out with runners on 1st and 2nd and a Win Probability of 91%.  This play would have increased Colorado's Win Probability by 3.9%.  

To see what Herrera chose to do, play this video.

While listening to this video.  

Don't peek ahead.

It appears that Herrera didn't have any idea what to do.  He looks like he began to throw home, then tried to tag the runner going by.  However he missed the runner going to second, and his throw home was late.  Everybody safe.  This play gave the Dodgers a 96.7% Win Probability, decreasing Colorado's Win Probability by 3.2%.

Speaking of Win Probability, what a fun game this was...

*Win Probability stats from The Hardball Times

*Game graph from FanGraphs

Day Planners: June 8th

June 8 2000 (Thur):
Marketing class in the morning
Afterwards I was to go to the gym with the notation "D&V"; Dustin and Val?
Had a check to cash, plants to water, laundry to do, and pens and a notebook to buy

I was working as a vendor for the Albuquerque Dukes baseball team at this time, a home stand started the next day.

June 8 2001(Fri):
Had to get up and mow the yard, preferably before it got too hot
Had a library book to pick up; don't remember which one it was
Something to do with EMT notes

By far the most exciting thing for the day: Pack Camping Stuff!!!!

June 8 2002(Sat):
Was working at The Beach Waterpark from 8 AM to 7 PM with Kim and Steve

June 8 2004(Tue):
Working at Su Vida.  I think I was working in the office at this time
Aferwork (or maybe at lunch) was supposed to go to the gym and work "upper"
Buy some groceries on the way home
And look for some new tires online once I got home

June 8 2008(Sun):
Living in Washington DC.  Had the day off.
The Nationals played the Giants
My brother had been in town and had left on Friday.  We had gone to see the Nats v St Louis and take a stadium tour where I threw a perfect strike in the bullpen. A couple of days later we went to see the National Air Guitar Championship.

June 8 2009(Mon):
Living in Silver Spring Maryland and working at the National Cathedral.  Had to catch the bus at 8:56 to get to work.
Afterwork I wanted to go to Giant and pick up: Bananas, spinach, lunchmeat and bread.

June 8 2010(Tue):
Living in New York City, working for The Center for Family Supports.
Had to make a bunch of phone calls in the morning regarding one of my clients.
After work I had to do a secret shop for an ice cream shop
Then a work meeting at 3:00
Stephen Strasburg made his major league debut against the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Was an amazing game.  Watch highlights here.  I had considered going down to DC to watch the game, but since I had the meeting I couldn't.  Damn it.

Yakety Sax: KC Royals (6/7/11)

Just as with the first 2 versions of the Yakety Sax plays,
Toronto Blue Jays: May 25th
Chicago Cubs: May 17


Sit back and enjoy this video of the KC Royals throwing the ball all over the field

As you listen to this song

The play occurred in the top of the first inning.  Toronto leadoff man Yunel Escobar singled to open the game.  The Royals' Win Probability at that point was 46.5%.  With the #2 hitter, Corey Patterson, at the plate Escobar took off for 2nd.  Catcher Matt Treanor's throw went in to CF where it was retrieved by Melky Cabrera who through to 3rd.  Unfortunately, for the Royals, Mike Aviles couldn't field the Melk Man's throw and Escobar jogged home safely with the run.  When KC was finally able to get the ball back to pitcher Vin Mazzaro their Win Probability stood at 40.4%, a loss of 6% on the play.

Videos of outstanding defensive plays this season

Outstanding Defensive Plays of 2011

10/20 Andrus and Kinsler play some up the middle D
10/19 Pujols and Carpenter get Andrus at 1st
9/13 Rick Ankiel throws out Josh Thole at home
9/7 Jeff Francoeur throws out Michael Taylor at 1st
8/28 Rick Ankiel throws out Dave Sappelt at 3rd
8/22 Ben Revere robs Vlad Guerrero
8/14 James Loney diving double play
8/13 Brent Lilibridge double play
8/12 Russ Martin diving catch
8/10 Peter Bourjos shows the range
8/7 Jeff Francoeur throws out Jhonny Peralta at third
8/2 James Loney grab and toss to Kuroda
7/29 Ankiel throws out Bay at home
7/26 Zimmerman barehanded leaping catch
6/1  Adam Jones over the shoulder catch
5/19 Asdrubal Cabrera behind the back flip to start double play
5/16 Carlos Gomez takes a home run away from Juan Uribe
5/13 Roger Bernadina robs Mike Stanton
5/11 Brandon Phillips catches some air
5/6 Brandon Phillips dives, throws behind the back
5/6 Carlos Gomez robs Matt Holliday
4/26 Lillibridge robs the Yankees not once, but twice.
4/16 Hunter Pence slides into wall
4/14 Mets' ballboy makes leaping catch
4/12 Brandon Phillips makes the barehanded play
4/9 Sam Fuld diving catch
4/8 Emilio Bonifacio throws behind Brett Wallace
4/3 Gordon Beckham leaping grab
4/3 Sam Fuld catch tripping over bullpen
4/2 Carlos Santana starts triple play

Fili's GOD for May 30th 2011: Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Indians

Jo-Jo Reyes gets the start tonight for the Toronto Blue Jays.  Reyes is 0-4 this season.  Normally Reyes wouldn't be the type of pitcher who would be involved in the Game Of the Day.  But today is different.  


Reyes' career record is 5-19, including:
2011: 0 - 4
2010: 0 - 0
2009: 0 - 2
2008: 3 - 11

Reyes' last win was June 13th 2008 against the Angels.

Since then he has made 27 starts without a victory.

The major league record for consecutive starts without a victory is 28, held by Matt Keough

He has 13 consecutive losses which is about halfway to the 27 consecutive losses that Anthony Young put up.

But he is nowhere near the record for the most consecutive appearances without a victory, 153 games by John Smoltz

Boob and Dick (Fowler)

Boob and Dick Fowler have sophomorically funny names.

Boob (aka Joseph Chester, aka Gink), an infielder, played for the Reds and Red Sox between 1923 and 1926.

He has a career .326/.348/.406 line in 181 plate appearances, add in his defensive contributions and he was worth .7 WAR over his career. Perhaps he should have been given a shot.

Dick (aka Richard John), was a pitcher for the Philadelphia A's from 1941-1952. He has a career 66-79 record with a 4.11 ERA in 221 games and 170 starts covering 1303 innings. He led the league in losses in 1946 with 16. On September 9th 1945 he pitched a no-hitter against the St. Louis Browns. Dick had 7.7 WAR over his career.

He's also the grandfather of Khalid Ballouli

Boob and Dick do not appear to be related. 






Interesting it will be to see how many Google hits this post gets.  

Fili's GODs for May 27th 2011: Rockies v Cardinals and Mariners v Yankees

Two games tonight that I'm especially interested in.  The first is the Colorado Rockies vs the St. Louis Cardinals.

Rockies' rookie Juan Nicasio makes his major league debut against the Cardinals.  Nicasio is a 24 year old right-hander making his first major league start.   Nicasio is 5 - 1 with a 2.22 ERA in AA thus far.  More importantly he has 10.01 K/9 and just 1.59 BB/9.  Nicasio does a decent job of getting ground balls but his percentages have been decreasing at each level:
A - 49%
Hi A - 45%
AA - 42%
Nicasio throws a mid-90's fastball, slider and change up.

Pitching in the bigs against a potent Cardinals offense (117 wRC+; 2nd in baseball) is a big jump for a guy who was pitching in High A Ball last season.


The second game features another young pitcher, Michael Pineda.  I reviewed Pineda's review here.  Pineda was very good that day, and has been even better since.  Pineda is 6 - 2 with a 2.16 ERA for Seattle in 9 starts.  He's striking out 9.41/9 and walking just 2.16/9.  His 2.26 FIP is better than every starter's in baseball not named Roy Halladay or Matt Garza.

He is showing the left/right split that I was concerned about:
vs L: K/9=8.78, BB/9=2.36, HR/9=.68
vs R: K/9=9.95, BB/9=1.99, HR/9=.28
He's just been so good that it hasn't mattered.

I was concerned about his change up not being good enough to get out left-handed batters.  He's responded by only throwing it 6% of the time.  His run value per 100 change ups is slightly negative, but only -.22.

He's thrown his fastball (62%) and slider (32%) much more often.  Both of those pitches have been excellent.  His fastball has been worth 1.69 runs per 100 pitches while the sider has been worth 2.93 runs per 100 pitches.  That's the 8th best fastball and 12th best slider amongst starters.

Tonight he faces a challenge.  The New York Yankees and their #1 (118 wRC+) offense.  He gets a bit of a reprieve though, as the game is in cavernous SAFECO field and not New Yankee Colosseum.  SAFECO is particularly hard on left-handed batters, which the Yankees have plenty of (Granderson, Cano, Gardner and switch hitters Teixeira, Swisher and Posada), with an 86 park factor for home runs according to StatCorner.